Eliteserien · Sun · 15:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Lillestrom are priced as favourites at 2.44, implying roughly 41% win probability, ahead of Sandefjord's 34.97% from odds of 2.86.
The draw at 3.67 implies around 27.25%, keeping all three match-result outcomes within a realistic range for punters.
No value picks versus market consensus cleared the threshold, suggesting the result market is fairly efficiently priced.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.55 has a model confidence of 60% but a negative value edge of -7.73%, indicating the market price already reflects or exceeds the model's fair-value estimate.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.1% | 8.24 |
| 1-1 | 12.0% | 8.34 |
| 2-0 | 9.6% | 10.46 |
| 2-1 | 9.4% | 10.58 |
| 0-0 | 7.7% | 12.99 |
| 0-1 | 7.6% | 13.16 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.58 and 0.99. These six scorelines cover 58% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SAN | X | 2 · LIL |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet | 2.70 | 3.60 | 2.55 |
| Betsson | 2.75 | 3.55 | 2.50 |
| 1xBet | 2.72 | 3.61 | 2.48 |
| Pinnacle | 2.70 | 3.62 | 2.49 |
| GTbets | 2.68 | 3.63 | 2.45 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.48 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sandefjord host Lillestrom in an Eliteserien fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors without making them overwhelming favourites. Lillestrom's best price of 2.44 translates to an implied probability of just over 41%, ahead of Sandefjord's 2.86 (around 35%) and the draw at 3.67 (roughly 27%). That spread points to a competitive match rather than a lopsided one, with all three outcomes carrying realistic market weight. Away from the result market, our model's attention turns to the goals total, flagging Under 3.5 goals at 1.55 as its recommended angle, built around a modeled confidence of 60%. Notably, this pick carries a negative value edge of about -7.73%, meaning the model does not see it as beating the bookmaker's implied price, which is worth factoring into any staking decision.
Verdict: The result market looks tightly bunched with Lillestrom holding a modest edge. The Under 3.5 goals pick at 1.55 reflects a reasonably confident model view at 60%, but its negative value edge means it is not flagged as a clear market inefficiency, so this should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a strong value play.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 12:00 | HamKam v Bodø/Glimt | 12.00 | 7.35 | 1.26 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Kristiansund BK v Aalesund | 2.48 | 3.89 | 2.75 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Viking FK v Fredrikstad FK | 1.31 | 6.60 | 10.00 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | Sarpsborg FK v Rosenborg | 2.61 | 3.95 | 2.58 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Molde v IK Start | 1.36 | 6.00 | 9.40 |
| 18 Oct 15:00 | Vålerenga v SK Brann | 2.60 | 3.90 | 2.60 |
| 18 Oct 17:15 | Tromso v KFUM | 1.56 | 4.35 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.30, with a 40% confidence rating.
Lillestrom are the market favourites at odds of 2.44, which implies a win probability of just over 41%, compared with Sandefjord's 34.97% from odds of 2.86.
The draw is available at 3.67, implying an approximate 27.25% probability, keeping it a live outcome alongside both team-win options.
No match-result value picks cleared the threshold according to the data provided. The recommended angle instead is Under 3.5 goals at 1.55, though it carries a negative value edge of -7.73%, so it is not presented as a guaranteed-value opportunity.
Sandefjord vs Lillestrom takes place Sun · 15:00 in the Eliteserien.
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