Bundesliga · Sun · 14:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Leverkusen are market favourites at 2.39, implying roughly 42% win probability compared to about 36% for Hoffenheim at 2.76.
The draw is priced the longest at 4.25, suggesting bookmakers see it as the least probable of the three outcomes at just under 24%.
No side of the match-result market clears the site's value threshold, meaning the 1x2 prices are viewed as fairly efficient.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.94 carries a 51% implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -1.52%, indicating it is close to fair pricing rather than a clear edge.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 8.5% | 11.72 |
| 1-2 | 8.1% | 12.33 |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | 13.19 |
| 2-2 | 7.2% | 13.87 |
| 1-3 | 5.1% | 19.46 |
| 0-1 | 4.8% | 20.83 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.78 and 1.90. These six scorelines cover 41% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from TSG Hoffenheim's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · TH | X | 2 · BL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.76 | 4.25 | 2.39 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.69 | 4.15 | 2.33 |
| Pinnacle | 2.68 | 3.96 | 2.36 |
| Tipico | 2.75 | 3.90 | 2.30 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.65 | 3.80 | 2.35 |
| Betsson | 2.65 | 3.80 | 2.35 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Hoffenheim host Bayer Leverkusen in a Bundesliga clash where the betting market leans toward the visitors but without making them an overwhelming pick. Leverkusen's best price of 2.39 implies a win probability of roughly 42%, while Hoffenheim's 2.76 price points to about 36%. The draw, priced at 4.25, is seen as the least likely outcome at just under 24%. With no outright value play standing out among the match-result odds, attention turns to the goals market, where the model flags Under 3.5 goals at 1.94 as the recommended angle, translating to an implied confidence of 51%. It is a moderate lean rather than a standout opportunity, so bettors should weigh it alongside their own view of the fixture before committing stakes.
Verdict: The Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.94 reflects a near-even assessment from the model, with implied confidence just above the odds-implied probability and a small negative edge. It is a reasonable, low-drama lean rather than a high-conviction call, so moderate staking and awareness of the marginal edge are advisable.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.94, with a 51% confidence rating.
Bayer Leverkusen are favoured by the market, priced at 2.39, which implies a win probability of around 42%, compared to Hoffenheim's 36% implied chance at 2.76.
The draw is priced at 4.25, giving it an implied probability of just under 24%, the lowest of the three match-result outcomes.
No match-result selection clears the site's value threshold, so the 1x2 market looks fairly priced. The highlighted angle is Under 3.5 goals at 1.94, which carries 51% implied confidence but only a marginal negative value edge of -1.52%.
TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer Leverkusen takes place Sun · 14:30 in the Bundesliga.
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