Süper Lig · Mon · 17:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Besiktas are priced as clear favourites at 2.09, implying close to a 48% chance of victory, compared with 28% for Trabzonspor and 26% for the draw.
The draw at 3.85 is the least likely outcome according to the market, sitting below both match-result prices.
The Over 2.5 goals line at 1.58 carries an implied probability near 63%, slightly above the model's own 60% confidence read.
No match-result selection meets our value threshold this week, and the recommended goals bet itself shows a negative value edge of -5.52%, meaning the market price is not clearly favourable by our metric.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.1% | 9.00 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.12 |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 12.52 |
| 1-2 | 7.7% | 12.95 |
| 0-1 | 6.9% | 14.56 |
| 2-0 | 6.5% | 15.46 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.62 and 1.39. These six scorelines cover 49% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · TRA | X | 2 · BJ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.96 | 3.88 | 2.29 |
| Coolbet | 2.90 | 3.85 | 2.25 |
| BetOnline.ag | 3.00 | 4.00 | 2.14 |
| Pinnacle | 2.81 | 3.99 | 2.25 |
| Tipico | 3.00 | 3.70 | 2.20 |
| GTbets | 3.02 | 3.63 | 2.21 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Besiktas JK travel to face Trabzonspor in a Süper Lig clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the visitors. Best odds of 2.09 on Besiktas imply a win probability of roughly 48%, noticeably higher than the 28% implied by Trabzonspor's 3.60 price or the 26% attached to a draw at 3.85. That gap suggests bookmakers see this as a moderately one-sided contest on paper, though nothing close to a formality. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.58, a price implying around 63% likelihood of three or more goals, against a stated model confidence of 60%. No side of the result market currently clears our value threshold, so this preview centres on the goals angle rather than backing a winner outright.
Verdict: The data points to Besiktas as moderate favourites, but the standout angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.58. With a 60% model confidence against a -5.52% edge, this is a plausible rather than a compelling selection. Treat it as a measured, risk-aware option rather than a strong-conviction play, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:00 | Çorum FK v Çaykur Rizespor | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 10:30 | Erzurum BB v Eyüpspor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Amed SK v Torku Konyaspor | 1.98 | 3.73 | 4.13 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Genclerbirligi SK v Galatasaray | 7.80 | 5.30 | 1.43 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Fenerbahce v Alanyaspor | 1.34 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Kasimpasa SK v Samsunspor | 2.65 | 3.55 | 2.80 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Kocaelispor v Goztepe | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | Basaksehir v Gazişehir Gaziantep | 1.77 | 4.27 | 4.70 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.44, with a 40% confidence rating.
Besiktas JK are favoured by the market, with best odds of 2.09 implying roughly a 48% win probability, compared with about 28% for Trabzonspor at 3.60.
The draw is available at 3.85, which implies a probability of around 26%, making it the least likely outcome of the three according to the odds given.
No match-result selection clears our value threshold for this fixture. The model does flag Over 2.5 goals at 1.58 with 60% confidence, though that selection itself carries a negative value edge of -5.52%, so it should be viewed cautiously rather than as a strong value play.
Trabzonspor vs Besiktas JK takes place Mon · 17:00 in the Süper Lig.
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