Süper Lig · Sun · 10:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Samsunspor hold the shortest price at 2.80 (implied probability about 35.7%), making them the narrow market favourite over Kasimpasa SK at 2.94 (about 34%).
The draw at 3.50 carries the lowest implied probability of the three outcomes at roughly 28.6%, suggesting the market leans toward a decisive result.
The model's fair probability for Kasimpasa SK (35%) sits slightly above the market-implied figure, generating a 3.67% value edge on the 2.94 price.
The gap between Kasimpasa and Samsunspor's odds is small, reflecting a fixture the market views as close to even rather than lopsided.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.7% | 7.86 |
| 1-0 | 10.2% | 9.82 |
| 0-1 | 9.9% | 10.10 |
| 2-1 | 8.2% | 12.22 |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | 12.56 |
| 0-0 | 7.9% | 12.63 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.29 and 1.25. These six scorelines cover 57% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · KS | X | 2 · SAM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.65 | 3.48 | 2.73 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 3.55 | 2.73 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.56 | 3.52 | 2.67 |
| Coolbet | 2.55 | 3.40 | 2.75 |
| GTbets | 2.58 | 3.39 | 2.67 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.48 | 3.25 | 2.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Kasimpasa SK host Samsunspor in a Süper Lig fixture where the betting market sees very little daylight between the two sides. Samsunspor are priced marginally shorter at 2.80 with the best available odds, implying a probability of roughly 35.7%, while Kasimpasa sit close behind at 2.94, implying around 34%. The draw is quoted at 3.50, implying about 28.6%, making it the least backed outcome of the three. With the prices this tight, no team carries a dominant market status, and the game reads as a close contest rather than a clear favourite situation. Our model flags Kasimpasa SK to win at 2.94 as the recommended angle, estimating their true winning probability at around 35%, slightly above what the current price implies, producing a value edge of 3.67%. This is a modest statistical edge rather than a strong signal, so it should be treated as one input among many.
Verdict: Kasimpasa SK to win at 2.94 is the model's pick, based on a fair probability estimate of 35% against a market-implied 34%, a modest 3.67% edge. This is a marginal value call in a tightly priced three-way market, not a high-confidence selection, so stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:00 | Çorum FK v Çaykur Rizespor | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 10:30 | Erzurum BB v Eyüpspor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Amed SK v Torku Konyaspor | 1.98 | 3.73 | 4.13 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Genclerbirligi SK v Galatasaray | 7.80 | 5.30 | 1.43 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Fenerbahce v Alanyaspor | 1.34 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Kocaelispor v Goztepe | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | Basaksehir v Gazişehir Gaziantep | 1.77 | 4.27 | 4.70 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Trabzonspor v Besiktas JK | 3.02 | 4.00 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.03, with a 48% confidence rating.
By the best available prices, Samsunspor are the narrow favourites at 2.80 (implied probability about 35.7%), just ahead of Kasimpasa SK at 2.94 (about 34%). The gap is small, so neither side is strongly favoured.
The draw is available at 3.50, which implies a probability of roughly 28.6%, making it the least likely outcome of the three according to the market.
The model estimates Kasimpasa SK's fair winning probability at around 35%, slightly above the 34% implied by their 2.94 price, giving a value edge of about 3.67%. It is a modest edge rather than a strong statistical advantage.
Kasimpasa SK vs Samsunspor takes place Sun · 10:30 in the Süper Lig.
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