Süper Lig · Sat · 16:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Fenerbahce's 1.36 price implies a win probability of close to 74 percent, making them clear market favourites over Alanyaspor.
Alanyaspor's 9.43 odds price them at just over 10 percent to win, reflecting a sizeable gap between the two sides according to the bookmakers.
The draw at 5.49 carries an implied probability of about 18.2 percent, but the model's fair estimate of 21 percent suggests a 16.13 percent edge versus the market consensus.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.69 carries a 59 percent implied confidence level, though its calculated value edge is slightly negative at -0.15 percent, indicating it is priced close to fair value rather than offering a clear advantage.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.07 |
| 2-0 | 9.8% | 10.22 |
| 1-1 | 9.5% | 10.54 |
| 1-0 | 9.3% | 10.71 |
| 3-1 | 6.9% | 14.41 |
| 3-0 | 6.8% | 14.64 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.10 and 1.02. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 6.00 | +5.5% | 18% | 56 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FEN | X | 2 · ALA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.31 | 5.89 | 10.00 |
| Coolbet | 1.32 | 5.25 | 10.00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.34 | 5.34 | 8.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.31 | 5.57 | 8.86 |
| GTbets | 1.32 | 5.34 | 8.91 |
| Tipico | 1.27 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Fenerbahce host Alanyaspor in a Süper Lig fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. At 1.36, Fenerbahce are priced as strong favourites, a figure that implies a win probability of roughly 73-74 percent. Alanyaspor, by contrast, sit at 9.43, translating to just over 10 percent implied probability, while the draw is quoted at 5.49, around 18 percent. These numbers paint a picture of a one-sided contest on paper, at least according to the odds compilers. Away from the match-result market, the model's recommended angle is Over 2.5 goals at 1.69, reflecting a roughly 59 percent implied confidence level, though the calculated edge on that selection is marginal and slightly negative. Elsewhere, the draw stands out as the more interesting price, with the model's fair probability estimate of 21 percent running ahead of the market's implied 18.2 percent, a gap worth noting for value-focused bettors.
Verdict: The data points to Fenerbahce as heavy favourites, with the draw flagged as the standout value angle based on the model's fair probability estimate. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet is reasonably likely according to the odds but offers minimal edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-confidence selection rather than a high-value play. Bet within your means.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:00 | Çorum FK v Çaykur Rizespor | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 10:30 | Erzurum BB v Eyüpspor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Amed SK v Torku Konyaspor | 1.98 | 3.73 | 4.13 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Genclerbirligi SK v Galatasaray | 7.80 | 5.30 | 1.43 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Kasimpasa SK v Samsunspor | 2.65 | 3.55 | 2.80 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Kocaelispor v Goztepe | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | Basaksehir v Gazişehir Gaziantep | 1.77 | 4.27 | 4.70 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Trabzonspor v Besiktas JK | 3.02 | 4.00 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.40, with a 40% confidence rating.
Fenerbahce are strongly favoured by the market at odds of 1.36, which implies a win probability of roughly 73-74 percent, compared with Alanyaspor's 9.43 price implying about 10 percent.
The best available draw price is 5.49, which implies a probability of around 18.2 percent, though the model's fair probability estimate of 21 percent suggests this price may carry some value.
According to the data, the draw shows a notable edge of 16.13 percent versus the market consensus, while the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.69 has a 59 percent implied confidence but only a marginal, slightly negative edge.
Fenerbahce vs Alanyaspor takes place Sat · 16:00 in the Süper Lig.
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