Süper Lig · Sat · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Galatasaray's 1.41 price implies roughly 71 percent win probability, making them a heavy market favourite over Gençlerbirliği SK.
Gençlerbirliği's 8.05 odds imply only about 12 percent, reflecting limited market confidence in an upset.
The draw at 5.77 carries a fair probability estimate of 18 percent against its market price, producing a positive edge of 6.56 percent.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.14 has a modelled confidence of 45 percent but a slight negative edge of -3.13 percent, suggesting fair rather than favourable pricing.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.0% | 9.11 |
| 0-1 | 10.6% | 9.45 |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | 10.16 |
| 0-2 | 9.5% | 10.55 |
| 1-0 | 6.1% | 16.31 |
| 0-0 | 5.9% | 16.95 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.04 and 1.79. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GS | X | 2 · GAL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.17 | 5.16 | 1.43 |
| Coolbet | 7.50 | 5.25 | 1.38 |
| BetOnline.ag | 7.00 | 5.30 | 1.39 |
| Pinnacle | 6.71 | 5.04 | 1.41 |
| Tipico | 7.80 | 5.00 | 1.37 |
| Unibet (NL) | 6.75 | 4.90 | 1.41 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Gençlerbirliği SK host Galatasaray in a Süper Lig fixture where the market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Galatasaray are priced at 1.41, which implies a win probability of roughly 71 percent, a strong market endorsement of the visitors. Gençlerbirliği, by contrast, sit out at 8.05, translating to around 12 percent, while the draw is available at 5.77, implying close to 17-18 percent. These numbers paint a lopsided contest on paper, with the bookmakers heavily backing Galatasaray to collect the points. Our model's recommended angle steps away from the result market entirely, pointing to Over 3.5 goals at 2.14, a bet on goal volume rather than outcome. That selection carries a modelled confidence of 45 percent against a slightly negative value edge, meaning it is a reasoned option rather than a clear-cut market mispricing. The draw, meanwhile, shows a notable positive edge versus its fair probability, worth factoring into any broader market view.
Verdict: The Over 3.5 goals pick at 2.14 reflects a plausible goal-heavy script given Galatasaray's strong favourite status, but the negative value edge means it is not a statistically favourable price. Treat it as a moderate-risk, model-informed option rather than a high-confidence selection, and size any stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:00 | Çorum FK v Çaykur Rizespor | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 10:30 | Erzurum BB v Eyüpspor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Amed SK v Torku Konyaspor | 1.98 | 3.73 | 4.13 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Fenerbahce v Alanyaspor | 1.34 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Kasimpasa SK v Samsunspor | 2.65 | 3.55 | 2.80 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Kocaelispor v Goztepe | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | Basaksehir v Gazişehir Gaziantep | 1.77 | 4.27 | 4.70 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Trabzonspor v Besiktas JK | 3.02 | 4.00 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.29, with a 43% confidence rating.
Galatasaray are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.41, implying a win probability of around 71 percent.
The draw is available at 5.77, implying a market probability of roughly 17 percent, though the data suggests a fair probability nearer 18 percent, giving it a positive value edge.
Based on the data, the draw shows a positive edge of 6.56 percent versus its fair price, while the recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.14 carries a slight negative edge, so value is mixed rather than one-directional.
Genclerbirligi SK vs Galatasaray takes place Sat · 13:00 in the Süper Lig.
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