Süper Lig · Sun · 16:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Basaksehir are priced at 1.88, implying roughly 53% win probability and establishing them as clear market favourites
Gazişehir Gaziantep's 4.63 price implies about 22% win probability, reflecting a notable gap to the home side
The draw at 4.3 implies roughly 23%, sitting between the two sides' implied chances and reflecting a competitive but home-tilted market view
The recommended Under 2.5 goals pick at 2.38 carries a -2.91% value edge against model expectations, indicating it is not a standout value bet despite being the top recommendation
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 11.0% | 9.09 |
| 1-0 | 10.8% | 9.29 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.10 |
| 1-1 | 9.7% | 10.31 |
| 3-0 | 7.5% | 13.37 |
| 3-1 | 6.7% | 14.84 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.04 and 0.90. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gazişehir Gaziantep to win | 4.70 | +6.5% | 23% | 58 |
| Draw (X) | 4.27 | +4.4% | 24% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BAS | X | 2 · GG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.72 | 4.27 | 4.63 |
| Coolbet | 1.70 | 4.20 | 4.50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.68 | 4.25 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.68 | 4.18 | 4.53 |
| GTbets | 1.68 | 4.15 | 4.51 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.77 | 3.80 | 4.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Basaksehir host Gazişehir Gaziantep in a Süper Lig fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Basaksehir are priced at 1.88 with Betsson, which implies a win probability of roughly 53%, making them the clear favourite on paper. Gazişehir Gaziantep, at 4.63 with 1xBet, are given around 22% by the market, while the draw sits at 4.3 with Tipico, implying roughly 23%. Those numbers suggest bookmakers expect a competitive but home-leaning contest rather than a one-sided affair. Away from the result market, our model's recommended angle is Under 2.5 goals at 2.38 with 1xBet, implying a 42% chance of that outcome. This sits close to, but slightly below, what the model would need for a positive edge, so it should be treated as a measured suggestion rather than a confident value play. No individual selections cleared our value threshold against market consensus in this match.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 2.38 is the model's lead suggestion, implying about a 42% chance, but the slightly negative value edge means this is not a strongly favoured bet. Basaksehir remain clear market favourites for the result market. Bettors should treat this as a moderate-confidence option and size stakes with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:00 | Çorum FK v Çaykur Rizespor | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 10:30 | Erzurum BB v Eyüpspor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Amed SK v Torku Konyaspor | 1.98 | 3.73 | 4.13 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Genclerbirligi SK v Galatasaray | 7.80 | 5.30 | 1.43 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Fenerbahce v Alanyaspor | 1.34 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Kasimpasa SK v Samsunspor | 2.65 | 3.55 | 2.80 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Kocaelispor v Goztepe | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.65 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Trabzonspor v Besiktas JK | 3.02 | 4.00 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.38, with a 41% confidence rating.
Basaksehir are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.88, which implies roughly a 53% chance of victory, well ahead of Gazişehir Gaziantep's implied 22%.
The draw is priced at 4.3 with Tipico, implying a probability of around 23%, placing it between the two teams' implied win chances.
No selection cleared the value threshold against market consensus. The model's top pick, Under 2.5 goals at 2.38, actually carries a slightly negative edge of -2.91%, so it should be viewed as a reasonable option rather than a confirmed value bet.
Basaksehir vs Gazişehir Gaziantep takes place Sun · 16:00 in the Süper Lig.
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