Süper Lig · Sun · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Match-result odds are tightly bunched: Kocaelispor 2.67, Goztepe 2.88 and the draw 3.68, implying probabilities of about 37%, 35% and 27% respectively.
The draw offers the clearest statistical value on the board, with a fair probability estimate of 29% against an implied 27.17%, an edge of 6.68%.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 1.94 carries a modelled confidence of 53% versus an implied probability of roughly 51.5%, a smaller edge of 1.98%.
The near-even split in win probabilities across both teams suggests the market expects a closely contested game rather than a clear favourite.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | 13.9% | 7.19 |
| 0-1 | 13.8% | 7.24 |
| 1-0 | 13.6% | 7.34 |
| 1-1 | 13.5% | 7.39 |
| 0-2 | 6.9% | 14.56 |
| 1-2 | 6.7% | 14.88 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 0.98 and 0.99. These six scorelines cover 68% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · KOC | X | 2 · GOZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.73 | 3.48 | 2.65 |
| Pinnacle | 2.78 | 3.49 | 2.48 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.68 | 3.50 | 2.56 |
| Coolbet | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.50 |
| GTbets | 2.59 | 3.34 | 2.64 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.70 | 3.20 | 2.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Kocaelispor host Goztepe in a Süper Lig clash where the betting market sees very little to separate the two sides. Kocaelispor are the nominal favourites at 2.67 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 37%, while Goztepe are priced at 2.88 with Unibet (NL), translating to about 35%. The draw, available at 3.68 with Nordic Bet, carries an implied probability near 27%, underlining how tightly matched the bookmakers consider this fixture. With such a narrow spread across all three outcomes, this looks like a classic coin-flip contest on paper. Our model's standout angle is not the match result market at all but the goals line, recommending Under 2.5 goals at 1.94, a price that corresponds to roughly 51.5% implied probability against a modelled 53% chance, leaving a modest value edge. Backers weighing a result bet should also note the draw stands out as the most notable value price among the three outcomes.
Verdict: The model leans toward Under 2.5 goals at 1.94, backed by a 53% confidence level and a modest 1.98% edge over the implied price. It is not a high-conviction selection, more a marginal value play, so stake sizing should reflect that limited edge and the inherent uncertainty of the match.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 17:00 | Çorum FK v Çaykur Rizespor | 2.08 | 3.85 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 10:30 | Erzurum BB v Eyüpspor | 1.65 | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Amed SK v Torku Konyaspor | 1.98 | 3.73 | 4.13 |
| 17 Oct 13:00 | Genclerbirligi SK v Galatasaray | 7.80 | 5.30 | 1.43 |
| 17 Oct 16:00 | Fenerbahce v Alanyaspor | 1.34 | 6.00 | 10.00 |
| 18 Oct 10:30 | Kasimpasa SK v Samsunspor | 2.65 | 3.55 | 2.80 |
| 18 Oct 16:00 | Basaksehir v Gazişehir Gaziantep | 1.77 | 4.27 | 4.70 |
| 19 Oct 17:00 | Trabzonspor v Besiktas JK | 3.02 | 4.00 | 2.29 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.06, with a 48% confidence rating.
Kocaelispor are the slight market favourites at 2.67, implying about a 37% win probability, just ahead of Goztepe at 2.88 (around 35%). The gap between the two is narrow, so neither side is strongly fancied.
The best available price for the draw is 3.68 with Nordic Bet, which implies roughly a 27% chance. Data suggests a fair probability closer to 29%, making it the highlighted value option among the three results.
Two angles stand out: the draw at 3.68 shows a 6.68% edge versus its fair probability, while the model's primary recommendation is Under 2.5 goals at 1.94, offering a smaller 1.98% edge with 53% confidence.
Kocaelispor vs Goztepe takes place Sun · 13:00 in the Süper Lig.
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