Championship · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
West Ham's 1.97 price implies roughly 51% win probability, the clearest signal in the match-result market
Swansea's 3.7 odds imply about 27% win probability, making them considerable underdogs on paper
The draw at 3.85 (around 26% implied) is priced close to Swansea's win chance, keeping the outcome far from a one-sided market
The Over 2.5 goals pick carries a -6.84% value edge versus the model's 58% confidence, meaning the odds don't clearly favour backing it from a pure value standpoint
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 9.29 |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | 11.49 |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | 12.42 |
| 0-1 | 7.2% | 13.91 |
| 1-0 | 6.7% | 15.04 |
| 2-2 | 6.5% | 15.36 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.50 and 1.62. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Swansea City to win | 3.70 | +15.5% | 31% | 72 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SC | X | 2 · WHU |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE) | 3.70 | 3.85 | 1.97 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.95 | 3.70 | 2.27 |
| GTbets | 3.31 | 3.70 | 2.09 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.04 | 3.61 | 2.21 |
| Betsson | 3.05 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 3.55 | 3.70 | 1.93 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
West Ham United travel to Swansea City for this Championship meeting with the betting market clearly pointing to an away win. LeoVegas prices West Ham at 1.97, which implies a win probability of roughly 51%, well ahead of Swansea's 3.7 (about 27%) and the draw at 3.85 (around 26%). That gap suggests bookmakers see West Ham as moderate favourites rather than overwhelming ones, leaving some uncertainty in the outcome market. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model's recommended angle looks at goals output, favouring Over 2.5 goals at 1.6 with a 58% confidence reading. It's worth noting this selection carries a negative value edge of -6.84%, meaning the model's own probability estimate sits below what the odds imply, so this is presented as an informed lean rather than a market inefficiency.
Verdict: The market leans toward West Ham, but not decisively. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.6 reflects a 58% confidence level, though its negative value edge suggests the price isn't generous relative to that estimate. Treat it as a measured, data-based lean rather than a high-value opportunity, and stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.56 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Portsmouth v Sheffield United | 2.33 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Queens Park Rangers v Derby County | 1.75 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 14 Oct 19:00 | Lincoln City v West Ham United | 5.30 | 4.34 | 1.72 |
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.46 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Middlesbrough v Cardiff City | 1.60 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Watford v Charlton Athletic | 2.40 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Millwall v Lincoln City | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.65, with a 58% confidence rating.
West Ham United are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.97 which implies roughly a 51% chance of winning, compared to Swansea City's 3.7 (about 27%).
The draw is priced at 3.85, which implies an approximate 26% probability, sitting close to Swansea's own win probability.
No clear value selection was flagged in the match-result market. The model's recommended pick is Over 2.5 goals at 1.6 with 58% confidence, though it actually shows a negative value edge of -6.84%, so it should be viewed as a data-based lean rather than a guaranteed edge.
Swansea City vs West Ham United takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.
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