Premier League · Sun · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Leeds United are market favourites at 2.5, implying roughly 40 percent win probability, the lowest of the three outcomes.
Sunderland's price of 3.03 implies around 33 percent, keeping them within reach of the draw price rather than clear outsiders.
The draw at 3.51 implies about 28.5 percent, a gap of roughly 11-12 points behind the favourite, suggesting a moderately rather than heavily backed favourite.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.11 carries an implied probability near 47 percent but shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.71 percent against the model's estimate.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.70 |
| 0-1 | 10.9% | 9.19 |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | 9.51 |
| 0-0 | 8.8% | 11.36 |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | 12.45 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 12.89 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.19 and 1.24. These six scorelines cover 59% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Sunderland's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SUN | X | 2 · LU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.78 | 3.47 | 2.72 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.63 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.80 | 3.35 | 2.63 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.71 | 3.38 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.84 | 3.30 | 2.56 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.62 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sunderland host Leeds United in a Premier League fixture where the betting market leans toward the visitors. Leeds United are priced at 2.5 for the win, which implies a probability of roughly 40 percent, the shortest price on offer across the three outcomes. Sunderland sit at 3.03 (about 33 percent), while the draw is priced at 3.51, implying around 28.5 percent. None of these figures suggest a one-sided contest, and the overround across the board points to a reasonably competitive match-up in the eyes of bookmakers. Away from the match-result market, the model's attention turns to the goals market, with Over 2.5 goals quoted at 2.11, translating to an implied probability close to 47 percent. This sits alongside a slightly negative value edge, meaning the price does not clearly outstrip the model's own assessment, but it remains the most notable angle from the available data for this Sunderland vs Leeds United clash.
Verdict: The data points to Leeds United as modest favourites without an overwhelming edge, and no match-result selection clears the site's value threshold. The highlighted Over 2.5 goals price at 2.11 aligns closely with the model's own probability estimate but carries a small negative edge, making it a reasonable rather than compelling consideration, best sized with normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Everton v Chelsea | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.23 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Brentford v Liverpool | 2.51 | 3.85 | 2.92 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Fulham v Hull City | 1.79 | 4.15 | 5.18 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Manchester City v Ipswich Town | 1.26 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Newcastle United v Aston Villa | 2.30 | 3.95 | 3.19 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Leeds United v Manchester United | 2.57 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Bournemouth v Sunderland | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Brighton and Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | 1.63 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Man United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.11, with a 47% confidence rating.
Leeds United are priced at 2.5, the shortest of the three match-result prices, implying a win probability of around 40 percent according to the market.
The draw is available at 3.51, which implies a probability of roughly 28.5 percent, the least likely of the three match outcomes based on current odds.
No match-result selection clears the site's value threshold in the data provided. The flagged Over 2.5 goals price of 2.11 is close to the model's own estimate but shows a small negative edge of -1.71 percent, so it should be viewed as a measured option rather than a standout value bet.
Sunderland vs Leeds United takes place Sun · 16:30 in the Premier League.
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