Premier League · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Manchester City are priced at 1.23, implying an approximate 81% win probability according to the market.
Ipswich Town's 13.6 price implies just over a 7% chance, reflecting a wide gap between the two sides.
The draw at 7.8 implies roughly 13%, the middle ground in a market dominated by the City price.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals pick carries 51% implied confidence but a modest negative value edge of -1.51%, meaning it is not flagged as strong value.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MC | X | 2 · IT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.23 | 7.70 | 13.60 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.21 | 7.20 | 12.75 |
| Tipico | 1.17 | 7.80 | 13.00 |
| William Hill | 1.20 | 6.50 | 12.00 |
| 888sport | 1.20 | 6.50 | 11.00 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.17 | 6.90 | 11.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Manchester City host Ipswich Town in the Premier League with the bookmakers leaving little doubt about the expected outcome. Best-priced odds of 1.23 for City imply a win probability of roughly 81%, while Ipswich at 13.6 are priced at around 7%, and the draw at 7.8 sits near 13%. That combination points to a heavily one-sided contest on paper, at least from a pure pricing standpoint. Rather than chasing the short-priced favourite or the long-shot away win, our model turns attention to the total-goals market, flagging Under 3.5 goals at 1.95 as the recommended angle. This sits at a market-implied confidence of 51%, though the calculated value edge is slightly negative, so it should be treated as a measured, data-based lean rather than a standout value play.
Verdict: The Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.95 reflects a moderate, data-driven lean rather than a clear-cut edge, given the slightly negative value calculation. With City heavily favoured to win comfortably, backing the total to stay under 3.5 is a reasonable, low-drama approach, though bettors should treat it as speculative rather than high-confidence and stake accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.95, with a 51% confidence rating.
Manchester City are strongly favoured, with odds of 1.23 implying an approximate 81% win probability, compared with about 7% for Ipswich Town.
The best available draw price is 7.8, which implies a probability of roughly 13% according to the market.
No standout value picks were identified against the market consensus; the recommended selection is Under 3.5 goals at 1.95, which carries 51% implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -1.51%.
Manchester City vs Ipswich Town takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Premier League.
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