Premier League · Sun · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Manchester United's 2.40 price implies around a 42 percent win chance, the shortest of the three match-result outcomes.
Leeds United at 3.01 imply roughly 33 percent, with the model's fair probability estimate of 34 percent suggesting a small positive edge of about 3.49 percent.
The draw at 3.76 implies close to 27 percent, keeping the outcome distribution fairly tight rather than one-sided.
The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.69 carries 58 percent implied confidence from the model but shows a slightly negative edge of -1.52 percent versus the price on offer.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.51 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 11.82 |
| 1-0 | 8.3% | 11.99 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 12.08 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.25 |
| 2-0 | 6.0% | 16.67 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.44 and 1.41. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Leeds United's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · LU | X | 2 · MU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.97 | 3.75 | 2.43 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.89 | 3.65 | 2.36 |
| Tipico | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.35 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| 888sport | 2.88 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.73 | 3.55 | 2.31 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Manchester United head to Elland Road as clear market favourites for this Premier League meeting with Leeds United, with the best available price of 2.40 implying a win probability of roughly 42 percent. Leeds are priced at 3.01, translating to an implied chance of around 33 percent, while the draw sits at 3.76, or about 27 percent. Those numbers point to a competitive fixture on paper despite United's favourite tag, since no outcome clears 50 percent. Away from the match-result market, the site's model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.69 as its recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 58 percent, though the calculated edge is slightly negative at -1.52 percent. Separately, Leeds United screen as a possible value price at 3.01 against a fair probability estimate of 34 percent, a gap of roughly 3.49 percent in the underdog's favour.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.69 is the model's headline suggestion, backed by solid implied confidence, though its negative edge means it is not a clear-cut value play. The Leeds United price also stands out modestly on value grounds. Stake sizes should reflect this mixed picture and normal bankroll discipline.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.69, with a 58% confidence rating.
Manchester United are favourites at a best price of 2.40, which implies a win probability of around 42 percent, ahead of Leeds United at 3.01 (about 33 percent) and the draw at 3.76 (about 27 percent).
The best available draw price is 3.76, which implies roughly a 27 percent chance of the match ending level, based purely on the market data provided.
The data suggests a modest value angle on Leeds United at 3.01, where the fair probability estimate of 34 percent is slightly higher than the market-implied 33 percent, giving an edge of about 3.49 percent, though this is not a guarantee of the outcome.
Leeds United vs Manchester United takes place Sun · 13:00 in the Premier League.
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