Premier League · Sat · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Newcastle United are strong market favourites at 2.01, implying just under 50 percent win probability compared to Aston Villa's 3.8 (about 26 percent) and the draw's 3.96 (about 25 percent).
The recommended bet, Over 2.5 goals at 1.68, carries a market-implied confidence of 59 percent but shows a small negative value edge of -1.52 percent against the model's fair assessment.
Aston Villa's best price of 3.8 shows a positive edge of 5.31 percent versus the model's fair probability of 28 percent, suggesting the market may be slightly undervaluing an away win.
The draw at 3.96 also shows a modest positive edge of 5.21 percent against a fair probability estimate of 27 percent, keeping it competitive with the away price in value terms.
Combined, the three match-result prices sum to just over 101 percent, reflecting a fairly standard bookmaker margin on this fixture.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.1% | 9.03 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.06 |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 12.45 |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | 13.07 |
| 0-1 | 6.8% | 14.71 |
| 2-0 | 6.5% | 15.29 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.63 and 1.38. These six scorelines cover 49% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 3.96 | +5.0% | 27% | 59 |
| Aston Villa to win | 3.72 | +3.4% | 28% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Newcastle United's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · NU | X | 2 · AV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.02 | 3.96 | 3.72 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.97 | 3.85 | 3.62 |
| Tipico | 1.90 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.50 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.88 | 3.75 | 3.55 |
| 888sport | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Newcastle United host Aston Villa in a Premier League clash where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Newcastle are priced at 2.01 with the best available odds, which implies a win probability of just under 50 percent, making them the clear favourite on paper. Aston Villa sit out at 3.8, translating to roughly 26 percent implied probability, while the draw at 3.96 sits close behind at around 25 percent, showing how tightly matched the non-favourite outcomes are priced. Rather than picking a side in the match-result market, our model's recommended angle looks at the goals market, favouring Over 2.5 goals at 1.68, which the market prices at close to 59 percent confidence. That sits alongside separate value signals flagged on both Aston Villa and the draw, where the model's fair probability estimates run slightly higher than the current prices suggest.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.68 is the model's headline pick, backed by a 59 percent implied confidence level, though its edge is marginally negative rather than a clear value angle. Aston Villa and the draw both show modest positive value against market pricing, but Newcastle remain the stronger favourite on paper. Stake sizing should reflect this mixed picture and personal risk tolerance.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.68, with a 59% confidence rating.
Newcastle United are priced at 2.01, the shortest odds among the three match-result outcomes, implying just under 50 percent win probability and making them the clear market favourites for this Premier League fixture.
The best available draw price is 3.96, which implies a probability of around 25 percent, only marginally behind Aston Villa's implied win chance of about 26 percent.
According to the model's fair probability estimates, both Aston Villa (28 percent fair probability vs 26 percent implied) and the draw (27 percent vs 25 percent) show modest positive edges of just over 5 percent each, though this reflects model assessment rather than a certainty of profit.
Newcastle United vs Aston Villa takes place Sat · 16:30 in the Premier League.
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