Premier League · Sun · 13:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Brighton's 1.61 price implies around a 62% win probability, making them strong favourites according to the market.
Crystal Palace's 5.65 price implies roughly 18% winning probability, but the model's fair probability of 21% points to a 19.18% value edge on the away side.
The draw, priced at 4.7 (about 21% implied), also shows a notable edge of 13.72% versus the model's fair estimate of 24%.
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.63 carries a 60% confidence level but only a marginal negative edge of -1.49%, suggesting it is fairly priced rather than a standout value play.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 11.0% | 9.06 |
| 1-0 | 10.7% | 9.35 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.11 |
| 1-1 | 9.6% | 10.43 |
| 3-0 | 7.6% | 13.16 |
| 3-1 | 6.8% | 14.71 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.06 and 0.90. These six scorelines cover 56% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crystal Palace to win | 5.65 | +19.3% | 21% | 66 |
| Draw (X) | 4.70 | +13.8% | 24% | 65 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Brighton and Hove Albion's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BAH | X | 2 · CP |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.61 | 4.57 | 5.65 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.57 | 4.45 | 5.50 |
| Tipico | 1.52 | 4.70 | 5.30 |
| 888sport | 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.52 | 4.40 | 5.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Brighton and Hove Albion host Crystal Palace in a Premier League fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the favourite. Brighton's price of 1.61 implies a win probability of roughly 62%, a clear reflection of market confidence in the home side. Crystal Palace, by contrast, are priced at 5.65, translating to an implied chance of about 18%, while the draw sits at 4.7, or around 21%. These numbers suggest bookmakers see this as a lopsided contest on paper, though football odds always carry some uncertainty. Away from the match-result market, the model's featured angle is a goals market call: Over 2.5 goals at 1.63, carrying a modelled confidence of 60% but a slightly negative value edge, meaning it is priced close to fair value rather than a clear market inefficiency.
Verdict: The data points to Brighton as clear favourites, but the more interesting angles lie in the Crystal Palace and draw prices, both showing measurable value edges versus the model's fair odds. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet is reasonably supported by confidence data but lacks a strong pricing edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a high-conviction one.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.64, with a 60% confidence rating.
Brighton and Hove Albion are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.61, which implies a win probability of about 62%.
The draw is priced at 4.7 with leading bookmakers, implying a probability of roughly 21%, though the model's fair estimate puts it slightly higher at 24%, indicating some value.
Based on the data, Crystal Palace at 5.65 shows a 19.18% edge versus the model's fair probability of 21%, suggesting the away price may be undervalued relative to the model's assessment, though this remains a higher-risk outcome given Brighton's market dominance.
Brighton and Hove Albion vs Crystal Palace takes place Sun · 13:00 in the Premier League.
English 
