Premier League · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Liverpool are marginal favourites at 2.54 (about 39% implied probability), only slightly ahead of Brentford at 2.73 (about 37%), indicating a closely priced match rather than a clear favourite.
The draw at 3.92 implies roughly 26% probability, but the model's fair probability estimate of 28% creates a 9.25% value edge, making it the standout pick versus market consensus.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.63 implies about 61% probability, though the calculated edge is slightly negative at -1.49%, suggesting the price is close to fair value rather than a clear discount.
With all three match-result outcomes priced above 25% implied probability, the market is not strongly leaning toward either side or the draw.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.8% | 8.50 |
| 1-0 | 9.2% | 10.93 |
| 2-1 | 9.0% | 11.09 |
| 0-1 | 7.7% | 13.04 |
| 1-2 | 7.6% | 13.23 |
| 2-0 | 7.0% | 14.27 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.53 and 1.29. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Brentford's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BRE | X | 2 · LIV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.73 | 3.92 | 2.54 |
| Tipico | 2.70 | 3.80 | 2.35 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.60 | 2.45 |
| 888sport | 2.60 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| MyBookie.ag | 2.58 | 3.70 | 2.36 |
| Winamax (DE) | 2.55 | 3.80 | 2.30 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Brentford host Liverpool in a Premier League fixture where the odds point to a tightly contested match rather than a one-sided affair. Liverpool are priced at 2.54 with 1xBet, implying a probability of roughly 39%, while Brentford sit close behind at 2.73, implying around 37%. The draw completes the picture at 3.92, translating to an implied probability near 26%. That spread shows the market sees little separation between the two sides on the day, even if Liverpool carry a small edge as favourites. Within this context, the site's model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 as its recommended angle, a price that implies roughly 60% confidence in three or more goals being scored. Separately, the draw stands out as a value pick against market consensus, with a fair probability estimate of 28% compared to the market's 26%, producing a 9.25% edge worth noting for anyone assessing this Brentford vs Liverpool encounter.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.63 reflects reasonable market-implied confidence around 60%, but its own edge calculation is marginally negative, so it is not a clear-cut value play. The draw at 3.92 shows a more favourable statistical edge. Stake sizes should stay modest given the tight overall pricing.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.63, with a 60% confidence rating.
Liverpool are the marginal favourites at 2.54, implying about 39% probability, just ahead of Brentford at 2.73, which implies roughly 37%. The gap between the two is small.
The draw is priced at 3.92, implying around 26% probability. The model's fair probability estimate is slightly higher at 28%, producing a 9.25% edge over the market price.
According to the data, the draw offers the clearest value with a 9.25% edge versus market consensus. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.63 carries a slightly negative edge of -1.49%, so it reflects confidence rather than a pricing discount.
Brentford vs Liverpool takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Premier League.
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