Premier League · Sat · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Sep 20, 2026 · how we work
Chelsea are priced as favourites at 2.26, implying roughly 44% win probability, ahead of Everton's 30% and the draw's 27%
The draw at 3.7 is the least likely outcome by implied probability among the three match-result prices
No outright value picks against the match-result market clear the site's threshold for this fixture
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.74 carries a 57% implied confidence but only a marginal -1.5% edge, indicating a near-fair-value price rather than a clear market gap
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.5% | 8.71 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.82 |
| 1-0 | 9.0% | 11.06 |
| 1-2 | 7.3% | 13.72 |
| 2-0 | 7.3% | 13.74 |
| 0-1 | 7.1% | 14.03 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.61 and 1.27. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Everton's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · EVE | X | 2 · CHE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.31 | 3.69 | 2.26 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.21 |
| Tipico | 3.20 | 3.70 | 2.10 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| MyBookie.ag | 3.08 | 3.48 | 2.14 |
| 888sport | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.15 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Everton host Chelsea at Goodison Park in a Premier League fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the visitors. Chelsea's best price of 2.26 with 1xBet implies a win probability of roughly 44%, comfortably ahead of Everton's 3.31 (around 30%) and the draw at 3.7 (about 27%) with Tipico. That gap points to a moderate but not overwhelming favourite tag for Chelsea, with Everton and the draw both live outcomes on paper. Away from the result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.74 with 1xBet as the recommended angle, translating to an implied 57% chance of at least three goals. The value edge on that selection sits at -1.5%, meaning it is close to fair value rather than a standout price, so it should be treated as a measured pick rather than a strong market mismatch.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 Goals selection at 1.74 is the standout angle from the data, backed by 57% implied confidence, though its -1.5% edge shows it is close to fair value rather than a clear overlay. Treat it as a reasonable, moderate-risk option rather than a high-conviction play, and size stakes accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Oct 11:30 | Arsenal v Leeds United | 1.36 | 5.50 | 10.50 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Chelsea v Bournemouth | 1.88 | 4.30 | 4.11 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion | 2.93 | 3.70 | 2.59 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Ipswich Town v Fulham | 2.79 | 3.70 | 2.63 |
| 10 Oct 14:00 | Aston Villa v Brentford | 2.76 | 3.65 | 2.74 |
| 10 Oct 16:30 | Manchester United v Tottenham Hotspur | 1.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Hull City v Everton | 3.85 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| 11 Oct 13:00 | Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest | 2.76 | 3.47 | 2.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 | Brentford | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 | Leeds United | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 | Liverpool | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 | Everton | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 | Newcastle | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 | Chelsea | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Ipswich Town | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Man United | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Nottingham | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 | Sunderland | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bournemouth | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Coventry City | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 | Fulham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 | Tottenham | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.74, with a 57% confidence rating.
Chelsea are favourites at 2.26 with 1xBet, which implies about a 44% chance of victory, ahead of Everton's 3.31 (around 30%) and the draw at 3.7 (about 27%).
The best draw price listed is 3.7 with Tipico, implying roughly a 27% probability, making it the least likely of the three match-result outcomes according to the market.
No match-result value picks clear the site's threshold for this game. The main data-driven angle is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.74, which has a -1.5% edge, so it is close to fair value rather than a clear overlay.
Everton vs Chelsea takes place Sat · 11:30 in the Premier League.
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