Eredivisie · Sun · 18:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
NEC Nijmegen's 1.46 price implies around 68 percent win probability, a sizeable gap over Fortuna Sittard's 6.8 (about 15 percent)
The draw at 5.25 implies roughly 19 percent, sitting between the two sides' chances and reflecting a market that sees NEC dominating but leaves room for an upset or stalemate
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 3.35 carries a model confidence of 28 percent against a market-implied probability close to 30 percent, producing a negative value edge of -5.83 percent
No value picks were flagged above the site's threshold, meaning the match-result market itself is not showing an obvious mispricing worth backing
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.89 |
| 1-1 | 8.2% | 12.25 |
| 3-1 | 6.9% | 14.49 |
| 2-0 | 6.5% | 15.34 |
| 2-2 | 6.5% | 15.46 |
| 1-0 | 5.8% | 17.27 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.25 and 1.41. These six scorelines cover 43% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard to win | 5.50 | +11.3% | 20% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from NEC Nijmegen's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · NN | X | 2 · FS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL) | 1.61 | 4.60 | 5.30 |
| 1xBet | 1.57 | 4.59 | 5.36 |
| Coolbet | 1.57 | 4.75 | 5.00 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.53 | 4.63 | 5.50 |
| Pinnacle | 1.56 | 4.51 | 5.16 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.58 | 4.55 | 4.90 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
NEC Nijmegen host Fortuna Sittard in an Eredivisie fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. NEC are priced at 1.46 for the win, which implies a probability of roughly 68 percent, making them strong favourites on home soil. Fortuna Sittard sit at 6.8, translating to around 15 percent, while the draw at 5.25 implies close to 19 percent. Together these prices paint a picture of a lopsided contest on paper. Away from the match-result market, our model points toward the Under 2.5 goals line at 3.35, suggesting a goal-shy affair is plausible, though the model's own confidence reading of 28 percent and a negative value edge mean this should be treated as a measured suggestion rather than a confident angle, with no outright value picks surfacing against the market consensus this time.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals pick at 3.35 is offered as a measured option rather than a strong value angle, given its negative edge versus market pricing. With NEC heavily favoured and the draw and away odds reflecting that imbalance, this fixture carries real uncertainty; stake sizing should stay conservative and within a sensible bankroll plan.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.50 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.30 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.81 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.36, with a 69% confidence rating.
NEC Nijmegen are clear favourites at 1.46, which implies roughly a 68 percent win probability, compared with Fortuna Sittard's 6.8 (about 15 percent) and the draw at 5.25 (about 19 percent).
The best available draw price is 5.25, which implies a probability of close to 19 percent according to the market.
No match-result value picks cleared the site's threshold for this game. The model's recommended angle is Under 2.5 goals at 3.35, though it carries a negative value edge of -5.83 percent, so it should be viewed cautiously rather than as a strong edge.
NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard takes place Sun · 18:00 in the Eredivisie.
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