Eredivisie · Sun · 15:45 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Ajax are strongly favoured at 1.5, implying a win probability close to 67 percent against Sparta's 13.8 percent at 7.25
The draw is priced at 5.33 by 1xBet, equating to an implied probability of about 18.8 percent
The model assigns the draw a fair probability of 22 percent, producing a notable 17.42 percent edge over the market price
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.92 carries a 50 percent confidence level but shows a slight negative edge of -4.0 percent, meaning it is not flagged as a clear value play
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 9.7% | 10.30 |
| 1-1 | 8.7% | 11.49 |
| 0-2 | 8.3% | 12.03 |
| 0-1 | 7.4% | 13.42 |
| 1-3 | 7.2% | 13.85 |
| 0-3 | 6.2% | 16.18 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.17 and 2.23. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.33 | +16.0% | 22% | 64 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Sparta Rotterdam's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SR | X | 2 · AJA |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.84 | 5.33 | 1.41 |
| Nordic Bet | 7.30 | 5.25 | 1.37 |
| Betsson | 7.21 | 5.19 | 1.36 |
| Marathon Bet | 6.60 | 5.15 | 1.37 |
| 888sport | 6.00 | 4.80 | 1.40 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 4.80 | 1.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Sparta Rotterdam host Ajax in an Eredivisie fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. Ajax are priced at 1.5 with Betfair, implying a win probability of roughly 67 percent, while Sparta drift out to 7.25 with Coolbet, translating to just under 14 percent. The draw sits at 5.33 with 1xBet, around 19 percent implied. Against that backdrop, our model's headline recommendation steers away from the result market entirely, pointing instead to Over 3.5 goals at 1.92 with 1xBet, a bet built around the expectation of an open, goal-heavy contest rather than trying to pick the outright winner. Separately, the numbers flag the draw as worth a second look, since its market price undervalues what the model sees as a more realistic chance of a stalemate.
Verdict: The standout angle here is statistical value on the draw, where market pricing appears to undersell its likelihood. The Over 3.5 goals selection at 1.92 is offered as the model's top pick, but its negative edge suggests it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a strong value bet. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.23 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.25 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.82 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.92, with a 50% confidence rating.
Ajax are clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.5 with Betfair, which implies a win probability of roughly 67 percent.
The draw is available at 5.33 with 1xBet, implying a probability of about 18.8 percent, though the model's fair probability estimate of 22 percent suggests some value at that price.
The model lists Over 3.5 goals at 1.92 as its recommended bet with 50 percent confidence, but it carries a slight negative edge of -4.0 percent, so it should not be viewed as a guaranteed value selection.
Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax takes place Sun · 15:45 in the Eredivisie.
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