Championship · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Southampton's 1.48 price implies around 67-68 percent win probability, making them a heavy favourite over Bolton Wanderers.
Bolton's 6.4 odds imply only about 15-16 percent, reflecting a sizeable gap in how the market rates the two teams.
The draw at 4.8 implies roughly 21 percent, positioning it as more likely than a Bolton win but still well behind a Southampton victory.
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.14 carries a -6.83 percent value edge against the model's 44 percent confidence, meaning it is not flagged as strong value despite being the standout selection.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.53 |
| 2-0 | 9.0% | 11.14 |
| 3-1 | 7.8% | 12.85 |
| 1-1 | 7.7% | 12.94 |
| 3-0 | 7.3% | 13.61 |
| 1-0 | 7.3% | 13.68 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.46 and 1.06. These six scorelines cover 49% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.20 | +10.4% | 21% | 60 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SOU | X | 2 · BW |
|---|---|---|---|
| GTbets | 1.48 | 4.98 | 6.73 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.48 | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.42 | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.44 | 4.82 | 6.41 |
| Betsson | 1.43 | 4.80 | 6.40 |
| 1xBet | 1.41 | 4.90 | 6.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Southampton host Bolton Wanderers in a Championship fixture where the betting market leaves little ambiguity about the favourite. Southampton are priced at 1.48, which implies a win probability of roughly 67-68 percent, while Bolton's 6.4 suggests only about 15-16 percent, and the draw at 4.8 sits at roughly 21 percent. That gap points to a clear gulf in how bookmakers rate the two sides for this particular match. Away from the result market, our model's recommended angle is Over 3.5 goals at 2.14, a price that implies close to 47 percent likelihood of five or more goals in the game. The model's own confidence sits at 44 percent, slightly below what the odds imply, so this is presented as a considered selection rather than a strong value play. As always, treat any pre-match analysis as one input among several and wager within your means.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 2.14 reflects a goal-heavy expectation for this Championship clash, but the model itself shows a negative value edge of -6.83 percent. This suggests moderate rather than high confidence, so it should be treated as a speculative angle rather than a clear-cut opportunity, with stakes sized accordingly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.56 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Portsmouth v Sheffield United | 2.33 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Queens Park Rangers v Derby County | 1.75 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 14 Oct 19:00 | Lincoln City v West Ham United | 5.30 | 4.34 | 1.72 |
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.46 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Middlesbrough v Cardiff City | 1.60 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Watford v Charlton Athletic | 2.40 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Millwall v Lincoln City | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 2.14, with a 45% confidence rating.
Southampton are strongly favoured at odds of 1.48, implying a win probability of roughly 67-68 percent, compared to Bolton Wanderers at 6.4.
The draw is priced at 4.8, which implies an approximate 21 percent chance according to the market.
No match-result value picks met the threshold, but the model highlights Over 3.5 goals at 2.14 as its recommended bet, though it carries a slightly negative value edge of -6.83 percent, so it is not a clear-cut value opportunity.
Southampton vs Bolton Wanderers takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.
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