Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Paderborn's 2.32 price implies about 43% win probability, the highest of the three match outcomes
Hamburger SV's 3.01 price implies roughly 33%, keeping them a live but secondary pick in the market's eyes
The draw at 3.96 implies close to 25%, suggesting the market does not see a draw as unlikely in this fixture
The Over 3.0 goals bet at 1.93 shows a slightly negative value edge of -4.77%, meaning the model's own probability estimate is marginally below what the price implies
| Bookmaker | 1 · SP | X | 2 · HS |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.92 | 2.91 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.34 | 3.82 | 2.83 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 3.63 | 2.80 |
| Tipico | 2.35 | 3.60 | 2.85 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.82 |
| Betsson | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bundesliga action brings SC Paderborn and Hamburger SV together in a fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them an overwhelming favourite. Paderborn's best price of 2.32 implies a win probability of roughly 43%, while Hamburger SV's 3.01 corresponds to about 33%. The draw, priced at 3.96, carries an implied chance of near 25%, leaving the match reasonably open according to the odds. Away from the result market, our model points to the goals market, flagging Over 3.0 goals at 1.93 with Pinnacle as the recommended angle. That price implies a bookmaker-side probability near 52%, against the model's own confidence of 49%, producing a small negative edge of -4.77%. In short, the market sees Paderborn with a moderate edge at home, Hamburger SV as a live outside shot, and the clearest statistical signal sitting in the total-goals market rather than the match-result market.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.0 goals pick at 1.93 reflects a goals-heavy angle rather than a confident match-result lean, but its -4.77% edge means the model sees it as roughly fair or slightly unfavourable value. It is a reasonable, moderate-risk consideration rather than a strong statistical edge, so stake sizing should stay conservative.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.95, with a 49% confidence rating.
SC Paderborn is favoured by the market at odds of 2.32, implying roughly a 43% win probability, compared with Hamburger SV's 3.01 price implying about 33%.
The best available draw odds are 3.96, which implies a probability of close to 25% for the match ending level.
No match-result value picks met the threshold, but the model highlights Over 3.0 goals at 1.93 as its recommended bet, though this carries a slightly negative edge of -4.77% rather than a clear statistical advantage.
SC Paderborn vs Hamburger SV takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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