Bundesliga · Sun · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Bayern Munich are heavily favoured at 1.4, implying close to 71% win probability according to the market.
Freiburg's 7.5 price implies only around 13% for an away upset, underlining the gap between the two sides as priced by bookmakers.
The draw at 6.2 implies roughly 16%, the least likely single outcome on offer.
The recommended Over 4.0 goals bet at 1.94 carries a -5.04% value edge, meaning the model rates it slightly below break-even rather than a genuine market mismatch.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 9.1% | 11.04 |
| 1-1 | 7.6% | 13.09 |
| 1-3 | 7.1% | 13.99 |
| 0-2 | 6.5% | 15.50 |
| 2-2 | 6.3% | 15.75 |
| 0-1 | 5.5% | 18.35 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.40 and 2.37. These six scorelines cover 42% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from SC Freiburg's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · SF | X | 2 · BM |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.39 | 6.11 | 1.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 7.20 | 5.95 | 1.36 |
| Tipico | 6.80 | 6.00 | 1.35 |
| Pinnacle | 6.53 | 5.94 | 1.36 |
| Nordic Bet | 7.10 | 5.90 | 1.33 |
| Betsson | 7.10 | 5.85 | 1.33 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bundesliga action brings SC Freiburg up against Bayern Munich, and the betting market leaves little doubt about where it expects the points to go. Bayern are priced as short as 1.4 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied win probability of roughly 71%. Freiburg, by contrast, drift out to 7.5 with 888sport, implying around 13% for a home win, while the draw sits at 6.2 with Tipico, pointing to about 16% for a stalemate. With the result market so one-sided, attention shifts to totals, where the model flags Over 4.0 goals at 1.94 with Pinnacle as its recommended angle. That price implies a break-even probability near 51.5%, against a model-estimated confidence of 49%, so the suggestion comes with a modest negative edge rather than a clear-cut advantage.
Verdict: The result market strongly favours Bayern Munich, leaving limited value in backing either the draw or Freiburg outright. The flagged Over 4.0 goals selection at 1.94 is the model's pick, but its negative edge of -5.04% suggests this is a marginal, higher-risk angle rather than a confidently backed value bet.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 4.0 goals at odds of 1.95, with a 49% confidence rating.
Bayern Munich are clear favourites, priced at 1.4 with 1xBet, which implies an approximate 71% win probability according to the market.
The draw is priced at 6.2 with Tipico, implying roughly a 16% chance of the match ending level.
The data shows no value picks above threshold for the match-result market, while the suggested Over 4.0 goals bet at 1.94 actually carries a slightly negative edge of -5.04%, so it should be viewed as a model lean rather than a strong value bet.
SC Freiburg vs Bayern Munich takes place Sun · 16:30 in the Bundesliga.
English 
