Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Leipzig's 1.35 price implies roughly a 74 percent win probability, the clearest signal in this match's market.
Elversberg's 8.4 price implies around 12 percent, reflecting a market view of them as significant underdogs.
The draw at 6.38 implies close to 16 percent, sitting between the two win outcomes as a secondary possibility.
The recommended Under 3.75 goals bet at 1.98 carries a market-implied confidence of 48 percent and a value edge of -4.9 percent, meaning it is not flagged as a clear value play by the model.
| Bookmaker | 1 · RL | X | 2 · ELV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.39 | 6.09 | 7.70 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.35 | 5.90 | 7.50 |
| Tipico | 1.32 | 5.80 | 8.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.33 | 5.54 | 7.94 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.33 | 5.45 | 8.10 |
| Betsson | 1.33 | 5.40 | 8.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
RB Leipzig host Elversberg in a Bundesliga fixture where the betting market leaves little room for ambiguity about the expected outcome. Leipzig are priced at 1.35 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 74 percent, making them heavy favourites in this matchup. Elversberg, at 8.4, carry an implied chance of just under 12 percent, while the draw sits at 6.38, implying about 16 percent. These numbers paint a picture of a contest the market expects Leipzig to dominate, though football odds always leave room for variance. Away from the result market, our model's recommended angle is Under 3.75 goals at 1.98 with Pinnacle, reflecting a view that the total goal count may stay moderate despite the gap in class suggested by the match-result prices. No value picks against the broader market consensus cleared our threshold for this game, so this preview leans on the raw pricing itself.
Verdict: The Under 3.75 goals selection at 1.98 is the model's pick here, but with a negative value edge of -4.9 percent and only 48 percent implied confidence, it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a strong recommendation. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.75 goals at odds of 1.85, with a 52% confidence rating.
RB Leipzig are strong favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.35 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of around 74 percent.
The draw is priced at 6.38 with 1xBet, implying an approximate probability of 16 percent.
No value picks against the market consensus cleared the threshold for this fixture. The model's recommended bet, Under 3.75 goals at 1.98, actually shows a negative value edge of -4.9 percent, so it is not presented as a strong value opportunity.
RB Leipzig vs Elversberg takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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