Eredivisie · Sun · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
PSV are priced at 1.93, implying roughly 52% win probability and clear favourite status over Feyenoord.
Feyenoord's 3.44 price implies about 29% probability, while the draw at 4.28 implies roughly 23%.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 3.25 carries a negative value edge of -7.14%, meaning the market price may not favour this pick despite being highlighted.
The draw offers a notable positive edge of 12.4%, with a fair probability estimate of 26% versus the market's implied 23%, making it the standout value angle in the data.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 8.1% | 12.41 |
| 1-1 | 7.3% | 13.77 |
| 2-2 | 7.1% | 13.99 |
| 1-2 | 6.4% | 15.53 |
| 3-1 | 6.0% | 16.78 |
| 3-2 | 5.3% | 18.94 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.22 and 1.77. These six scorelines cover 40% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from PSV Eindhoven's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · PE | X | 2 · FEY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.93 | 4.28 | 3.44 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.88 | 4.20 | 3.45 |
| Betsson | 1.87 | 4.14 | 3.42 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.87 | 4.15 | 3.34 |
| 888sport | 1.83 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
| William Hill | 1.83 | 3.80 | 3.25 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
PSV Eindhoven host Feyenoord in an Eredivisie fixture where the betting market leans clearly toward the home side. Best odds of 1.93 for PSV translate to an implied probability of roughly 52%, making them the clear favourite over Feyenoord at 3.44 (about 29%) and the draw at 4.28 (about 23%). Those numbers suggest bookmakers expect PSV to win more often than not, though Feyenoord's price still leaves room for an upset in the market's eyes. Our model's headlined selection for this match is Under 2.5 goals at 3.25, carrying a market-implied confidence of 29%. Interestingly, the model's own edge calculation on that total comes out negative, a detail worth noting before placing any stake. Separately, the draw stands out as a value angle, with a fair probability estimate of 26% against a market-implied 23%, producing a positive edge of around 12%.
Verdict: The Under 2.5 goals pick at 3.25 is presented with a market-implied confidence of 29%, but its negative value edge means the data does not strongly support it as favourable value. Bettors considering this match might weigh the draw's positive edge instead, though all outcomes remain uncertain and stakes should be managed responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.23 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.25 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.82 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 3.52, with a 27% confidence rating.
PSV Eindhoven are the clear market favourite, priced at 1.93 which implies roughly a 52% chance of winning, compared with Feyenoord's 3.44 (about 29%) and the draw at 4.28 (about 23%).
The best available price on the draw is 4.28, implying a probability of around 23%. Our model estimates a fair probability of 26%, giving the draw a positive edge of roughly 12.4%.
Under 2.5 goals is priced at 3.25 with a market-implied confidence of 29%, but the calculated value edge is -7.14%, suggesting the market price does not currently favour this selection according to the model.
PSV Eindhoven vs Feyenoord takes place Sun · 13:30 in the Eredivisie.
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