Championship · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Norwich City's 1.72 price implies roughly a 58% chance of victory, the strongest single outcome across the match-result market
Portsmouth's 4.8 odds put their implied win probability at about 21%, reflecting their underdog status according to the market
The draw is priced at 4.0, translating to an implied probability near 25%, making it a live but secondary outcome
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation at 1.67 carries a 56% implied confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -6.98%, indicating the odds are not generously priced relative to the model's assessment
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.2% | 8.90 |
| 1-0 | 10.0% | 10.01 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.33 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 11.63 |
| 0-1 | 6.5% | 15.31 |
| 1-2 | 6.3% | 15.82 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.72 and 1.13. These six scorelines cover 52% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portsmouth to win | 4.90 | +9.6% | 22% | 61 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Norwich City's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · NC | X | 2 · POR |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.71 | 4.00 | 4.90 |
| GTbets | 1.75 | 4.00 | 4.43 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.68 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.68 | 4.04 | 4.66 |
| Betsson | 1.68 | 4.00 | 4.65 |
| 1xBet | 1.68 | 4.05 | 4.41 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Norwich City host Portsmouth in a Championship fixture where the betting market leans firmly toward the home side. Best odds of 1.72 on Norwich imply a win probability of roughly 58%, while Portsmouth's 4.8 price points to around 21%, and the draw at 4.0 suggests close to 25%. Those numbers, which sum above 100% due to standard bookmaker margin, frame Norwich as clear favourites without suggesting a one-sided contest. Away from the match-result market, our model flags Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 as the recommended angle, with an implied confidence of 56% from the market and a modest negative value edge of -6.98%. This means the price does not look like a standout market inefficiency, but it is the pick our model surfaces when the result market itself offers no clear value plays. Bettors should weigh this alongside their own view of likely goal output.
Verdict: Norwich are the clear market favourites, but the model's actual recommendation sits in the goals market: Over 2.5 at 1.67. With a 56% implied confidence and a negative value edge, this is a reasonable rather than compelling angle. Stake sizing should reflect that modest edge and the inherent uncertainty of goal totals.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.56 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Portsmouth v Sheffield United | 2.33 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Queens Park Rangers v Derby County | 1.75 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 14 Oct 19:00 | Lincoln City v West Ham United | 5.30 | 4.34 | 1.72 |
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.46 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Middlesbrough v Cardiff City | 1.60 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Watford v Charlton Athletic | 2.40 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Millwall v Lincoln City | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.67, with a 58% confidence rating.
Norwich City are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.72 which implies roughly a 58% chance of winning, compared to Portsmouth's 4.8 price and about 21% implied probability.
The draw is available at 4.0, which implies an approximate 25% chance according to the market, making it a secondary but relevant outcome to consider.
The match-result market shows no picks above the site's value threshold, but the model does flag Over 2.5 goals at 1.67 as a recommended bet, albeit with a slightly negative value edge of -6.98%, so it should be viewed as a moderate rather than strong opportunity.
Norwich City vs Portsmouth takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.
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