Premier League · Sun · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Manchester United are priced at 1.79 for the win, implying roughly 56 percent probability and establishing them as clear favourites.
The draw at 4.36 implies about 23 percent, but the model's fair probability of 26 percent produces a 12.17 percent edge on that price.
Bournemouth at 4.42 implies around 23 percent as well, with a fair probability near 25 percent giving a 12.09 percent edge on the underdog.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.73 carries a 57 percent model confidence but a slight negative edge of -1.64 percent, suggesting it is close to fairly priced rather than a clear overlay.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 9.8% | 10.25 |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.30 |
| 1-0 | 7.8% | 12.74 |
| 2-0 | 7.8% | 12.80 |
| 3-1 | 6.4% | 15.53 |
| 1-2 | 6.1% | 16.47 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.99 and 1.24. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Manchester United's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · MU | X | 2 · BOU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.86 | 4.26 | 4.11 |
| Betfair | 1.87 | 4.00 | 4.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.83 | 4.20 | 3.95 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.83 | 4.20 | 3.95 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.81 | 4.15 | 4.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.82 | 4.03 | 3.92 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Manchester United host Bournemouth in a Premier League fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the expected outcome. The hosts are priced at 1.79, which implies a win probability of roughly 56 percent, making them clear favourites over the Cherries, who are available at 4.42 for an implied chance of about 23 percent. The draw sits at 4.36, also near 23 percent. Rather than back the straight result, the model's featured selection looks at the goals market, recommending Under 3.5 goals at 1.73 with a model confidence of 57 percent. That price carries a small negative edge against the model's own fair value, so it reflects a close alignment between market and model rather than a standout discrepancy. Elsewhere, the data flags some value on the longer-priced outcomes, with both the draw and a Bournemouth win showing meaningful edges versus their market prices.
Verdict: The Under 3.5 goals pick at 1.73 reflects a moderately confident model view at 57 percent, but its slightly negative edge means it is not flagged as strong value, just a reasonably balanced option. Bettors should weigh this against the higher-edge draw and Bournemouth prices and stake cautiously, as all football outcomes carry genuine uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Everton v Chelsea | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.23 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Brentford v Liverpool | 2.51 | 3.85 | 2.92 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Fulham v Hull City | 1.79 | 4.15 | 5.18 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Manchester City v Ipswich Town | 1.26 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Newcastle United v Aston Villa | 2.30 | 3.95 | 3.19 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Leeds United v Manchester United | 2.57 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Bournemouth v Sunderland | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Brighton and Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | 1.63 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Man United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.76, with a 56% confidence rating.
Manchester United are the clear market favourites at 1.79, which implies a win probability of roughly 56 percent, compared to Bournemouth's 4.42 and the draw at 4.36.
The draw is priced at 4.36, implying about 23 percent probability, though the model's fair value estimate of 26 percent gives it a 12.17 percent edge over that market price.
According to the data, the draw and a Bournemouth win both show notable edges of around 12 percent versus market prices, while the model's recommended Under 3.5 goals bet at 1.73 has only a slight negative edge, making it close to fair value rather than a standout opportunity.
Manchester United vs Bournemouth takes place Sun · 14:00 in the Premier League.
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