Premier League · Fri · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Nottingham Forest are favoured at 2.55 (about 39% implied probability), narrowly ahead of Ipswich Town at 2.96 (about 34%).
The draw is priced at 3.52, implying roughly 28% probability, keeping all three match-result outcomes fairly close together.
The model's recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.97 carries a -1.5% edge, meaning it is priced slightly against value by the model's own estimate.
The draw offers a flagged value edge of 5.51%, with a fair probability of 30% versus the market's implied 28%.
| Bookmaker | 1 · IT | X | 2 · NF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.10 | 3.63 | 2.39 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.32 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.95 | 3.55 | 2.40 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.95 | 3.55 | 2.40 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.02 | 3.54 | 2.33 |
| Pinnacle | 3.06 | 3.55 | 2.26 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Ipswich Town host Nottingham Forest in a Premier League fixture where the betting market leans narrowly towards the visitors. Forest's best price of 2.55 implies a win probability of roughly 39%, compared with 34% for Ipswich at 2.96, while the draw at 3.52 carries an implied chance of about 28%. That's a tight spread across all three outcomes, suggesting the bookmakers see this as competitive rather than one-sided. Away from the match result market, our model's headline recommendation points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.97, priced at an implied 50% likelihood, though the model's own edge calculation shows this sits slightly below fair value. Separately, the draw stands out as a value angle, with a fair probability estimate of 30% against a market-implied 28%, producing a positive edge. Bettors weighing this Ipswich versus Forest clash have several angles to consider before kick-off.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals selection at 1.97 is the model's headline pick but comes with a small negative edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a clear-cut value play. The draw at 3.52 shows a more favourable edge on paper, though draws remain inherently unpredictable. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Everton v Chelsea | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.23 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Brentford v Liverpool | 2.51 | 3.85 | 2.92 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Fulham v Hull City | 1.79 | 4.15 | 5.18 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Manchester City v Ipswich Town | 1.26 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Newcastle United v Aston Villa | 2.30 | 3.95 | 3.19 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Leeds United v Manchester United | 2.57 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Bournemouth v Sunderland | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Brighton and Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | 1.63 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Man United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.84, with a 54% confidence rating.
Nottingham Forest are the marginal favourites according to the odds, priced at 2.55 compared with 2.96 for Ipswich Town, implying win probabilities of about 39% and 34% respectively.
The draw is available at 3.52, which implies a probability of roughly 28%. The model's fair-value estimate puts it slightly higher at 30%, generating a flagged edge of 5.51%.
The model flags the draw as the clearer value opportunity with a positive 5.51% edge, while the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.97 actually shows a slight negative edge of -1.5%, so neither selection should be seen as a certainty.
Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest takes place Fri · 19:00 in the Premier League.
English 
