Eredivisie · Fri · 18:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Go Ahead Eagles are priced at 1.54, implying roughly a 65 percent chance of victory according to the market
SC Telstar's 5.62 price implies only about an 18 percent win probability, reflecting their underdog status
The draw at 4.75 implies around 21 percent, a relatively standard price gap given the favourite's strength
The recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.98 carries a -4.09 percent value edge against market consensus, suggesting no clear pricing advantage
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.1% | 9.87 |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | 10.52 |
| 1-0 | 7.7% | 13.02 |
| 2-0 | 7.2% | 13.87 |
| 1-2 | 6.7% | 14.97 |
| 2-2 | 6.3% | 15.95 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.88 and 1.32. These six scorelines cover 47% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Go Ahead Eagles's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · GAE | X | 2 · ST |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL) | 1.55 | 4.75 | 5.50 |
| 1xBet | 1.54 | 4.69 | 5.62 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.52 | 4.55 | 5.40 |
| Betsson | 1.52 | 4.49 | 5.31 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.49 | 4.55 | 5.45 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.51 | 4.50 | 5.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Eredivisie action sees Go Ahead Eagles host SC Telstar with the bookmakers leaving little doubt about who they expect to come out on top. At 1.54 for a home win, the market installs Go Ahead Eagles as clear favourites, implying a win probability of roughly 65 percent. SC Telstar, priced at 5.62, are given only around an 18 percent chance, while the draw at 4.75 sits close to 21 percent. Those numbers point to a game the market expects to be fairly one-sided on paper. Away from the result market, our model flags Over 3.5 goals at 1.98 as its recommended angle, translating to an implied probability near 50 percent, though the model's own confidence reading sits a touch lower at 48 percent with a negative value edge, meaning it is not being presented as a clear-cut market mismatch.
Verdict: The Over 3.5 goals pick at 1.98 is offered as the standout angle here, but with a negative value edge of -4.09 percent and model confidence just under 50 percent, it should be treated as a moderate-risk selection rather than a strong statistical edge. Stake sizing should reflect that uncertainty.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.23 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.25 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.82 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.98, with a 48% confidence rating.
Go Ahead Eagles are strong favourites at odds of 1.54, which implies roughly a 65 percent win probability according to the market.
The draw is priced at 4.75 with Coolbet, implying an approximate 21 percent probability.
The listed value picks table shows nothing above the site's threshold, and even the recommended Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.98 carries a negative value edge of -4.09 percent, so no strong market mismatch is indicated by the data.
Go Ahead Eagles vs SC Telstar takes place Fri · 18:00 in the Eredivisie.
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