Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Mainz are priced at 1.73, implying close to a 58% win probability and establishing them as clear market favourites over Bremen.
Werder Bremen's 4.67 price and the draw's 4.70 price are closely matched, both implying probabilities around 21%.
The Over 3.25 goals selection at 1.95 carries a 49% implied confidence but a negative edge of -5.07%, suggesting the market price does not favour this angle.
The draw offers a positive value edge of 4.14% against a fair probability estimate of 22%, making it the standout data point among the listed prices.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.22 |
| 1-1 | 9.6% | 10.46 |
| 2-0 | 8.2% | 12.22 |
| 1-0 | 8.0% | 12.50 |
| 3-1 | 6.7% | 14.97 |
| 2-2 | 5.9% | 17.09 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.05 and 1.20. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from FSV Mainz 05's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FM0 | X | 2 · WB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.73 | 4.41 | 4.72 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.69 | 4.30 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.67 | 4.23 | 4.59 |
| Tipico | 1.65 | 4.40 | 4.50 |
| Betsson | 1.65 | 4.05 | 4.70 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.65 | 4.05 | 4.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Mainz 05 host Werder Bremen in a Bundesliga fixture where the betting market leans heavily toward the home side. Best prices have Mainz at 1.73, which implies a win probability of roughly 58%, while Bremen's 4.67 price points to just under 21.4%. The draw, at 4.70, sits almost level with Bremen's chances at around 21.3%, reflecting a market that sees this as a fairly one-sided contest on paper. Away from the match-result market, the model's headline recommendation targets the goals market, backing Over 3.25 goals at 1.95 with a market-implied confidence of 49%, though this comes with a negative value edge of -5.07%, meaning the model does not see this price as offering a statistical advantage. Elsewhere, the draw stands out as the more interesting angle, carrying a positive edge against the market consensus.
Verdict: The recommended Over 3.25 goals bet at 1.95 reflects a goals-heavy expectation for this fixture, but its negative edge of -5.07% indicates the model itself does not view it as strong value at this price. Bettors considering it should treat it as a moderate-risk selection rather than a high-confidence pick, and weigh it against the more favourably priced draw option.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.88, with a 51% confidence rating.
Mainz 05 are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.73, which implies a win probability of roughly 58% compared to Bremen's 4.67 price and the draw at 4.70.
The best draw price is 4.70, implying about 21.3% probability. The model's fair probability estimate of 22% gives this price a positive edge of 4.14%, making it a data point worth noting for value-focused bettors.
The Over 3.25 goals line is priced at 1.95 with 49% implied confidence from the model, but it carries a negative edge of -5.07%, meaning the data suggests this specific price is not strongly favourable at the moment.
FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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