Eredivisie · Sun · 11:15 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Excelsior are marginal market favourites at 2.44, implying about 41 percent, against Fortuna Sittard's 36.90 percent at 2.71, a gap of only a few points
The draw at 4.0 implies roughly 25 percent but the model's fair probability estimate is higher at 27 percent, producing a positive edge of 7.44 percent
The recommended Under 2.5 goals pick at 2.45 carries only 38 percent model confidence and a negative edge of -6.96 percent, meaning it is not flagged as clear value despite being the headline suggestion
Combined implied probabilities across the three match-result outcomes sit just above 100 percent, typical bookmaker overround, so none of the prices should be read as certainties
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.0% | 10.03 |
| 1-2 | 8.3% | 12.08 |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | 12.11 |
| 2-2 | 6.9% | 14.58 |
| 0-1 | 6.0% | 16.64 |
| 1-0 | 6.0% | 16.67 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.66 and 1.66. These six scorelines cover 45% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Fortuna Sittard's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FS | X | 2 · EXC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.71 | 3.82 | 2.44 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.60 | 3.85 | 2.42 |
| Betsson | 2.58 | 3.80 | 2.39 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.62 | 3.70 | 2.36 |
| 888sport | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
| William Hill | 2.62 | 3.50 | 2.38 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Fortuna Sittard host Excelsior in an Eredivisie meeting where the betting market sees little daylight between the two sides. Excelsior are priced at 2.44 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 41 percent, while Fortuna Sittard sit at 2.71, translating to about 37 percent. The draw, best backed at 4.0 with Coolbet, implies around 25 percent. Those numbers point to a tightly contested fixture with a narrow lean toward the visitors rather than a clear favourite. Away from the match-result market, the site's model flags Under 2.5 goals at 2.45 with William Hill as its recommended angle, carrying a confidence reading of 38 percent, though the calculated edge on that selection comes in slightly negative. Separately, the draw stands out as a value price, with a fair probability estimate of 27 percent against the 25 percent implied by the 4.0 quote.
Verdict: The data points to a close contest with no strong favourite. The Under 2.5 goals recommendation carries modest model confidence and a slightly negative edge, so it should be treated as a measured option rather than a confident value play. The draw's pricing looks comparatively more interesting on paper, but all selections involve genuine uncertainty and should be sized responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.23 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.25 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.82 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.56, with a 37% confidence rating.
Excelsior are the slight market favourites at 2.44 with 1xBet, implying about 41 percent, compared with Fortuna Sittard's 2.71 price and roughly 37 percent implied probability.
The best available draw price is 4.0 with Coolbet, which implies around 25 percent, while the model's fair probability estimate is slightly higher at 27 percent.
The draw shows a positive edge of 7.44 percent versus its market price, making it the standout value note, whereas the recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.45 actually carries a negative edge of -6.96 percent despite being the model's suggested pick.
Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior takes place Sun · 11:15 in the Eredivisie.
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