English ⚽ Eredivisie 🕒 11 Oct 2026
Our tip
FC Utrecht to win
Odds
1.88
WonResult
3-1Final score
+0.88uProfit
76%Pre-match conf.
AI Settled against the final score — published pre-match at Betfair
Today's predictions → Our published tip
Key factors behind our tip
01
Utrecht's 1.55 price implies roughly a 64.5 percent win probability, making them heavy favourites over Willem II.
02
Willem II's 6.1 odds imply only about a 16.4 percent chance of an away win according to the market.
03
The draw at 4.8 implies close to 20.8 percent, keeping it a live secondary outcome behind an Utrecht win.
04
The Over 3.25 goals recommendation at 1.98 carries a 48 percent model confidence and a negative edge of -4.09 percent, so it is not flagged as strong value.
Team form
FU FC Utrecht WLWDL
11 Oct 26 vs Willem II 3-1
20 Sept 26 @ Feyenoord 0-5
13 Sept 26 @ Excelsior 2-1
8 Sept 26 vs Go Ahead 3-3
30 Aug 26 vs PSV 1-6
WI Willem II LLLDL
11 Oct 26 @ Utrecht 1-3
19 Sept 26 vs Sittard 0-1
15 Sept 26 @ Ajax 1-5
11 Sept 26 @ AZ 1-1
5 Sept 26 vs Excelsior 0-3
Head-to-head: FC Utrecht v Willem II
W 11 Oct 26
Utrecht 3-1 Willem IIEredivisie
W/D/L shown from FC Utrecht's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
FC Utrecht vs Willem II: pre-match preview
FC Utrecht head into this Eredivisie meeting with Willem II as clear market favourites, with the best available price on a home win at 1.55, implying a win probability of roughly 64.5 percent. Willem II are priced at 6.1, translating to an implied chance of around 16.4 percent, while the draw sits at 4.8, or about 20.8 percent. Those numbers point to a lopsided contest on paper, at least according to the bookmakers. Away from the match-result market, our model flags Over 3.25 goals at 1.98 as the recommended angle, though it carries a market-implied confidence of 48 percent and a negative value edge of -4.09 percent, meaning the model itself does not see this as a clear-cut positive-value play. No side of the 1X2 market currently clears our value threshold, so this preview leans on probability framing rather than a strong tip.
Verdict: The recommendation of Over 3.25 goals at 1.98 is presented with a negative value edge, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk, speculative angle rather than a confident value bet. Utrecht's strong favourite status in the 1X2 market is clear from the odds, but no outcome there currently meets our value criteria either.
How it settled: the tip landed — the match finished 3-1, for a flat-stake return of +0.88 units. Every tip we publish is archived before kick-off and graded against the final score; nothing is edited or deleted afterwards.
Upcoming Eredivisie fixtures
All Eredivisie tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.23 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.25 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.82 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Eredivisie standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What was our prediction for FC Utrecht vs Willem II?+
Our tip was FC Utrecht to win at odds of 1.88.
Who is favourite in the FC Utrecht vs Willem II match?+
FC Utrecht are the clear market favourites, priced at 1.55, which implies a win probability of about 64.5 percent, well ahead of Willem II at 6.1 (around 16.4 percent).
What is the draw priced at for Utrecht vs Willem II?+
The draw is available at 4.8, implying an approximate 20.8 percent chance according to the market.
Is there a value bet for this fixture?+
No 1X2 selection currently clears our value threshold. The only model-recommended bet is Over 3.25 goals at 1.98, but it shows a negative value edge of -4.09 percent, so it should be viewed cautiously rather than as a strong value pick.
Did the tip win?+
The tip won — final score 3-1 (+0.88u at flat stakes).