Eredivisie · Sat · 14:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Utrecht's 1.69 price implies close to 59% winning probability, making them the clear market favourite over Zwolle.
Zwolle at 4.54 and the draw at 4.5 are priced almost identically, both sitting around the 22% implied probability mark.
The combined implied probabilities exceed 100% by roughly 3-4%, reflecting normal bookmaker margin rather than true extra value.
The recommended Under 3.5 goals bet carries a 56% model confidence but a slightly negative value edge of -4.05%, indicating a fair rather than favourable price.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.46 |
| 1-1 | 8.5% | 11.81 |
| 2-0 | 7.7% | 13.04 |
| 3-1 | 7.2% | 13.91 |
| 1-0 | 6.8% | 14.71 |
| 2-2 | 5.9% | 16.81 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.26 and 1.25. These six scorelines cover 46% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from FC Utrecht's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FU | X | 2 · FZ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.60 | 4.44 | 5.21 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.58 | 4.60 | 4.95 |
| Betsson | 1.56 | 4.53 | 4.87 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.55 | 4.30 | 5.05 |
| 888sport | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.80 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
FC Utrecht host FC Zwolle in an Eredivisie fixture where the betting market leans heavily toward the home side. Utrecht are priced at 1.69, which implies a win probability of roughly 59%, while Zwolle's 4.54 price points to only about 22% and the draw at 4.5 sits in a similar range near 22%. That gap signals a clear favourite-underdog dynamic rather than an even contest. Away from the result market, our model's recommended angle is Under 3.5 goals at 1.72, reflecting a 56% implied confidence level. The value edge on that selection comes out slightly negative at -4.05%, meaning the price doesn't offer a clear mathematical advantage over the model's own estimate. No outright value picks against market consensus were flagged for this fixture, so this preview centres on reading the raw odds rather than claiming an edge play.
Verdict: The data points to Utrecht as strong favourites, but the standout angle here is Under 3.5 goals at 1.72, backed by 56% model confidence. The slightly negative value edge means this isn't a clear-cut opportunity, so it should be treated as a measured, moderate-risk selection rather than a high-conviction play.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.23 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.25 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.82 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.45, with a 65% confidence rating.
FC Utrecht are the clear market favourites at odds of 1.69, which implies roughly a 59% chance of winning according to the betting market.
The draw is available at 4.5, implying an approximate 22% probability, almost identical to Zwolle's own implied win chance.
No standout value picks against market consensus were identified. The model's Under 3.5 goals recommendation at 1.72 carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.05%, suggesting the price is close to fair rather than clearly advantageous.
FC Utrecht vs FC Zwolle takes place Sat · 14:30 in the Eredivisie.
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