Championship · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Derby County are priced at 2.6 to win, the shortest of the three match-result prices, implying roughly a 38% chance.
Stoke City's best price of 2.87 implies around 35%, keeping the gap to Derby relatively narrow.
The draw at 3.35 implies close to 30%, reflecting a genuinely competitive match-up with no dominant favourite.
The Over 2.5 goals recommendation carries a model confidence of 48% against odds of 1.95, but shows a negative value edge of -7.22%, meaning it is not flagged as strong value by the model's own metric.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.3% | 8.10 |
| 1-0 | 10.5% | 9.49 |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.17 |
| 0-1 | 8.5% | 11.72 |
| 2-0 | 7.6% | 13.09 |
| 0-0 | 7.3% | 13.74 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.45 and 1.17. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Derby County's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · DC | X | 2 · SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.85 |
| Codere (IT) | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.70 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.52 | 3.21 | 2.87 |
| Betsson | 2.50 | 3.20 | 2.85 |
| GTbets | 2.57 | 3.29 | 2.70 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.50 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Derby County host Stoke City in a Championship clash where the betting market leans only mildly towards the home side. Best prices make Derby favourites at 2.6, which implies a win probability of roughly 38%, while Stoke's 2.87 price points to around 35%. The draw, priced at 3.35, carries an implied chance of near 30%, underlining how tightly matched the bookmakers consider this fixture. With no single result standing out as a strong banker, attention shifts to the goals market, where the recommended angle from our model is Over 2.5 goals at 1.95. That price reflects a market-implied confidence of 48%, and the model flags a value edge of -7.22%, meaning the quoted odds are slightly shorter than the model's own assessment would suggest is ideal. It is a contest without a clear market-side favourite, so goal-based thinking offers an alternative lens on the fixture.
Verdict: The match-result market offers no standout favourite, with Derby, Stoke and the draw all within a tight implied-probability band. The model's Over 2.5 goals suggestion at 1.95 is the closest thing to a highlighted angle, though its negative value edge means it should be treated as a moderate-risk option rather than a confident selection. Bet within your means.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.56 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Portsmouth v Sheffield United | 2.33 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Queens Park Rangers v Derby County | 1.75 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 14 Oct 19:00 | Lincoln City v West Ham United | 5.30 | 4.34 | 1.72 |
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.46 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Middlesbrough v Cardiff City | 1.60 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Watford v Charlton Athletic | 2.40 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Millwall v Lincoln City | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 2.01, with a 47% confidence rating.
Derby County are the marginal favourites based on best available odds of 2.6, implying a win probability of about 38%, slightly ahead of Stoke City's 2.87 price (around 35%).
The draw is available at 3.35, which implies an approximate 30% chance, making it a realistic outcome given how close the match-result odds are across all three options.
No standard match-result value picks met the threshold. The model instead highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.95 with 48% implied confidence, though this carries a -7.22% value edge, so it should be viewed as a moderate rather than strongly backed option.
Derby County vs Stoke City takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.
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