Premier League · Sun · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Crystal Palace and Newcastle United share identical best odds of 2.65, implying near-equal 37.7 percent win probabilities for each side.
The draw is priced at 3.84 (about 26 percent implied), but the model's fair probability of 28 percent suggests a 7.25 percent edge over the market consensus.
Over 2.5 Goals at 1.68 is the model's recommended bet with 59 percent implied confidence, though its edge versus fair value is slightly negative at -1.52 percent.
The tight spread across all three match-result outcomes points to a genuinely unpredictable contest by market pricing, rather than a clear favourite.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 11.7% | 8.56 |
| 1-2 | 8.4% | 11.90 |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | 11.98 |
| 0-1 | 8.2% | 12.24 |
| 1-0 | 8.1% | 12.30 |
| 2-2 | 6.0% | 16.67 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.43 and 1.44. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Crystal Palace's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CP | X | 2 · NU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.65 | 3.65 | 2.75 |
| Betfair | 2.66 | 3.70 | 2.56 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.65 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.65 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.65 | 3.60 | 2.60 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.58 | 3.55 | 2.67 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Crystal Palace host Newcastle United in a Premier League fixture where the bookmakers see almost nothing to separate the two sides. Both teams are priced at 2.65 for a straight win, which works out to an implied probability of roughly 37.7 percent each, leaving the draw at 3.84 (about 26 percent implied) as the least backed outcome in isolation. With the match-result market this tight, attention shifts to goals markets, and our model flags Over 2.5 Goals at 1.68 as its recommended angle, translating to a model confidence of 59 percent. That price carries a small negative edge of -1.52 percent against the model's own fair value, so it is offered as a considered selection rather than a standout market inefficiency. Separately, the draw stands out as a value price, with a fair probability estimate of 28 percent against the 3.84 on offer, an edge of 7.25 percent. Bettors weighing Crystal Palace versus Newcastle should read both signals together before deciding where stake goes.
Verdict: The data points two ways: Over 2.5 Goals is the model's recommended pick but carries a marginally negative edge, making it a reasonable rather than compelling play. The draw shows a more notable positive edge of 7.25 percent. Neither is risk-free, and stake sizing should reflect the closeness of this market.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Everton v Chelsea | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.23 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Brentford v Liverpool | 2.51 | 3.85 | 2.92 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Fulham v Hull City | 1.79 | 4.15 | 5.18 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Manchester City v Ipswich Town | 1.26 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Newcastle United v Aston Villa | 2.30 | 3.95 | 3.19 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Leeds United v Manchester United | 2.57 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Bournemouth v Sunderland | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Brighton and Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | 1.63 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Man United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.74, with a 58% confidence rating.
Neither side holds a clear edge in the betting; both Crystal Palace and Newcastle United are priced at 2.65, implying roughly equal 37.7 percent win probabilities each.
The best available price on the draw is 3.84, which implies about a 26 percent chance, though the model's fair probability estimate of 28 percent suggests some value at that price.
The model identifies the draw as the clearest value selection with a 7.25 percent edge, while its recommended Over 2.5 Goals bet at 1.68 carries a slightly negative edge of -1.52 percent, so it is not a standout value play.
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle United takes place Sun · 14:00 in the Premier League.
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