Premier League · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Fulham are priced at 2.33, giving them the highest implied win probability of the three outcomes at roughly 43 percent, ahead of Coventry City's 31 percent at 3.21.
The draw at 3.63 implies about 28 percent, but the model's fair probability of 29 percent suggests a modest 4.25 percent value edge on that selection.
The recommended Under 2.5 goals bet at 2.07 carries a market-implied confidence of 48 percent but shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.48 percent, so it is not flagged as a strong statistical edge.
Combined implied probabilities across the three match-result prices exceed 100 percent, a normal bookmaker margin that bettors should factor in when comparing perceived value.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CC | X | 2 · FUL |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.12 | 3.61 | 2.39 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.95 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.95 | 3.60 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.98 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.04 | 3.52 | 2.33 |
| Pinnacle | 2.94 | 3.55 | 2.34 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Fulham head to the Coventry Building Society Arena as clear market favourites for this Premier League meeting, with their best-priced odds of 2.33 translating to an implied win probability of roughly 43 percent. Coventry City, priced at 3.21, are given around a 31 percent chance by the same bookmaker, while the draw at 3.63 implies close to 28 percent. Together those prices carry a standard overround, meaning the true picture is slightly less favourable to each outcome than the raw numbers suggest. Our model's headline recommendation here is not on the match result at all, but on Under 2.5 goals at 2.07, reflecting an expectation of a tighter, lower-scoring contest between the two sides. Alongside that, the draw stands out as the most interesting value angle in the three-way market, given the gap between its market price and the model's fair-probability estimate.
Verdict: Under 2.5 goals at 2.07 is the model's pick, built around a near-even 48 percent implied chance rather than a clear statistical advantage, since its edge is marginally negative. The draw at 3.63 offers a more notable value gap. Neither selection should be treated as a safe outcome, and bankroll discipline is advised.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Everton v Chelsea | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.23 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Brentford v Liverpool | 2.51 | 3.85 | 2.92 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Fulham v Hull City | 1.79 | 4.15 | 5.18 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Manchester City v Ipswich Town | 1.26 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Newcastle United v Aston Villa | 2.30 | 3.95 | 3.19 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Leeds United v Manchester United | 2.57 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Bournemouth v Sunderland | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Brighton and Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | 1.63 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Man United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.81, with a 54% confidence rating.
Fulham are favourites with best odds of 2.33, implying around a 43 percent win probability, compared with Coventry City at 3.21, implying roughly 31 percent.
The draw is priced at 3.63, which implies about a 28 percent chance, though the model's fair-probability estimate of 29 percent suggests a small value edge of 4.25 percent on that outcome.
The model highlights Under 2.5 goals at 2.07 as its recommended bet, with an implied confidence of 48 percent, though the calculated value edge is slightly negative at -1.48 percent, so it reflects a close call rather than a strong edge.
Coventry City vs Fulham takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Premier League.
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