Premier League · Sat · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Chelsea's 1.75 price implies a win probability near 57%, making them the clear market favourite over Tottenham Hotspur.
Tottenham's 4.67 odds and the draw's 4.37 both sit above their model-estimated fair value, producing edges of 13.16% and 12.11% respectively.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.64 reflects 60% market-implied confidence but carries a small negative edge of -1.6%, meaning it is not flagged as pure value.
The overall odds spread shows a sizeable gap between favourite and underdog pricing, typical of a fixture where the market sees one side as considerably stronger on paper.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.0% | 10.04 |
| 2-1 | 9.9% | 10.14 |
| 1-0 | 8.7% | 11.47 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 11.57 |
| 3-1 | 6.5% | 15.36 |
| 3-0 | 5.7% | 17.54 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.98 and 1.14. These six scorelines cover 49% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tottenham Hotspur to win | 4.20 | +4.1% | 25% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Chelsea's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · CHE | X | 2 · TH |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.90 | 4.11 | 4.06 |
| Betfair | 1.85 | 4.10 | 4.20 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.88 | 4.10 | 3.85 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.88 | 4.10 | 3.85 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.95 |
| Betsson | 1.85 | 3.98 | 3.82 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Chelsea host Tottenham Hotspur in a London derby that carries plenty of Premier League weight, and the betting market leaves little doubt about who is favoured. Best prices have Chelsea at 1.75, which implies a win probability of roughly 57%, while Tottenham at 4.67 and the draw at 4.37 point to much smaller shares of around 21% and 23% respectively. That gap suggests bookmakers expect a comfortable home platform, though football's unpredictability means nothing is settled on paper. Away from the match-result market, the model's attention shifts to goals, recommending Over 2.5 at 1.64 with a market-implied confidence of 60%. That price actually carries a slight negative edge of -1.6% against the model's fair value, so it is presented as a measured lean rather than a standout opportunity. Meanwhile, both Tottenham and the draw show notable value edges versus market consensus, hinting the outsider outcomes may be underpriced relative to the model's own probability estimates.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.64, backed by 60% implied confidence, though the slight negative edge means it is a reasonable rather than compelling price. Chelsea remain clear market favourites, while Tottenham and the draw show modelled value worth noting for risk-tolerant bettors. Stake sizing should reflect this mixed picture.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Everton v Chelsea | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.23 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Brentford v Liverpool | 2.51 | 3.85 | 2.92 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Fulham v Hull City | 1.79 | 4.15 | 5.18 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Manchester City v Ipswich Town | 1.26 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Newcastle United v Aston Villa | 2.30 | 3.95 | 3.19 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Leeds United v Manchester United | 2.57 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Bournemouth v Sunderland | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Brighton and Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | 1.63 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Man United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.66, with a 60% confidence rating.
Chelsea are strongly favoured by the market, priced at 1.75, which implies a win probability of roughly 57%.
The best available draw price is 4.37, implying a probability of about 23%, though the model's fair-value estimate puts it higher at 26%, suggesting some value.
According to the data, Tottenham's best price of 4.67 against a model fair probability of 24% produces a 13.16% edge, indicating the underdog price may be generous relative to the model's estimate, though this remains a higher-risk bet.
Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur takes place Sat · 16:30 in the Premier League.
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