Bundesliga · Sat · 16:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Dortmund are priced at 1.48, implying a win probability of about 67.6 percent and marking them as clear favourites
Frankfurt's 6.5 price implies only around 15.4 percent, reflecting their underdog status in the market
The draw at 5.5 carries an implied probability of roughly 18.2 percent, sitting between the two win outcomes
The recommended Over 3.5 goals pick at 1.89 carries a -1.66 percent value edge, meaning no clear market inefficiency was identified above the site's value threshold
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 8.9% | 11.29 |
| 2-0 | 8.6% | 11.70 |
| 3-1 | 8.2% | 12.25 |
| 3-0 | 7.9% | 12.69 |
| 1-1 | 6.4% | 15.58 |
| 1-0 | 6.2% | 16.16 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.76 and 1.04. These six scorelines cover 46% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 5.50 | +3.7% | 19% | 55 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
W/D/L shown from Borussia Dortmund's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BD | X | 2 · EF |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 5.39 | 6.31 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.45 | 5.25 | 6.15 |
| Tipico | 1.42 | 5.50 | 6.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.45 | 5.15 | 5.76 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.46 | 4.60 | 6.20 |
| Betsson | 1.46 | 4.60 | 6.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Borussia Dortmund host Eintracht Frankfurt in a Bundesliga clash where the betting market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. Dortmund are priced at 1.48 with the best available odds, which translates to an implied win probability of roughly 67.6 percent, making them strong favourites on home soil. Frankfurt, at 6.5, are given only around 15.4 percent, while the draw at 5.5 sits at about 18.2 percent, suggesting bookmakers see an away upset or stalemate as distinctly secondary outcomes. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to goals, flagging Over 3.5 goals at 1.89 as the recommended angle, implying a probability near 52.9 percent against a model confidence of 52 percent. That near-alignment, with a slight negative edge of -1.66 percent, means this is less a standout value play and more a plausible reflection of an open, goal-friendly contest given Dortmund's dominant market standing.
Verdict: The market firmly favours Dortmund, with Frankfurt and the draw both priced as secondary outcomes. The highlighted Over 3.5 goals bet at 1.89 aligns closely with model confidence but shows a small negative edge, so it should be treated as a reasonable goals-market angle rather than a confirmed value opportunity. Stake with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.5 goals at odds of 1.92, with a 51% confidence rating.
Borussia Dortmund are strong favourites, priced at 1.48, which implies a win probability of about 67.6 percent.
The draw is priced at 5.5, implying a probability of roughly 18.2 percent.
No match-result selections cleared the site's value threshold. The model instead highlights Over 3.5 goals at 1.89, though this shows a slightly negative value edge of -1.66 percent rather than a confirmed edge.
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt takes place Sat · 16:30 in the Bundesliga.
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