Championship · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Birmingham City are priced at 2.04 to win, implying roughly a 49% chance according to the market.
Queens Park Rangers and the draw share identical odds of 3.65, each implying about 27.4% probability.
The three-way market carries a modest overround of close to 4%, typical for a competitive Championship fixture.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.77 has a -7.44% value edge, meaning it does not clear the site's value threshold despite being the model's pick.
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queens Park Rangers to win | 3.85 | +6.4% | 28% | 61 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip — every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
| Bookmaker | 1 · BC | X | 2 · QPR |
|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.06 | 3.60 | 3.65 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.97 | 3.55 | 3.85 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.99 | 3.65 | 3.57 |
| GTbets | 2.02 | 3.49 | 3.60 |
| Betsson | 1.98 | 3.65 | 3.55 |
| 1xBet | 1.98 | 3.58 | 3.50 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Birmingham City host Queens Park Rangers in a Championship clash where the betting market leans clearly towards the home side. Best prices make Birmingham favourites at 2.04, which implies a win probability of roughly 49%, while QPR and the draw are both priced at 3.65, each implying around 27.4%. That gap suggests bookmakers see Birmingham as the stronger side on the day, though the draw remaining fully live at the same price as a QPR win shows the visitors aren't being dismissed outright. Away from the match-result market, the site's model points to Over 2.5 goals at 1.77 as its recommended angle, carrying a market-implied confidence of 52%. The value edge on that selection sits at -7.44%, so it's offered as a reasoned lean rather than a standout value play, and bettors should weigh that context before staking.
Verdict: The Over 2.5 goals pick at 1.77 reflects a 52% model confidence but carries a negative value edge of -7.44%, so it should be treated as a moderate-risk lean rather than a confident value bet. Birmingham's shorter match-result price reflects market favouritism, but no selection here offers a clear statistical edge.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Norwich City v Southampton | 2.56 | 4.00 | 2.80 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Portsmouth v Sheffield United | 2.33 | 3.65 | 3.30 |
| 14 Oct 18:45 | Queens Park Rangers v Derby County | 1.75 | 4.20 | 5.60 |
| 14 Oct 19:00 | Lincoln City v West Ham United | 5.30 | 4.34 | 1.72 |
| 16 Oct 19:00 | Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers | 3.15 | 3.60 | 2.46 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Middlesbrough v Cardiff City | 1.60 | 5.00 | 6.10 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Watford v Charlton Athletic | 2.40 | 3.55 | 3.50 |
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Millwall v Lincoln City | 2.00 | 3.65 | 3.85 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 20 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | +5 | 18 |
| 3 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | +11 | 16 |
| 4 | Stoke | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 16 |
| 5 | Wolverhampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +4 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +3 | 14 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | West Brom | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 10 | Bristol City | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +10 | 13 |
| 12 | Charlton | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -3 | 13 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 14 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | +1 | 12 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 16 | Lincoln City | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Bolton | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 18 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 22 | Burnley | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 23 | Derby County | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston NE | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -8 | 4 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.85, with a 52% confidence rating.
Birmingham City are the market favourites at odds of 2.04, which implies roughly a 49% chance of victory according to the best available price.
The draw is priced at 3.65, the same as a Queens Park Rangers win, implying an approximate 27.4% probability for each outcome.
The site's model highlights Over 2.5 goals at 1.77 with 52% implied confidence, though it carries a -7.44% value edge, meaning it is not flagged as a strong value opportunity.
Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Championship.
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