Eredivisie · Sun · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
AZ Alkmaar are the market favourite at 2.3, implying a win probability in the low-to-mid 40s percent
FC Twente's 2.88 price implies a notably lower win chance, putting clear daylight between the two sides in the market's eyes
The draw, priced at 4.0, carries a model-estimated fair probability of 26 percent, producing a positive edge of 5.91 percent against the market price
The recommended Under 3.0 goals bet at 2.1 carries a 45 percent implied confidence but shows a negative value edge of -5.75 percent, meaning the price does not fully match the model's own assessment
| Bookmaker | 1 · AA | X | 2 · FTE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.28 | 3.90 | 2.88 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.22 | 3.85 | 2.85 |
| Betsson | 2.20 | 3.82 | 2.83 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.21 | 3.78 | 2.79 |
| 888sport | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.75 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
AZ Alkmaar host FC Twente Enschede in an Eredivisie fixture where the betting market leans toward the home side without making them an overwhelming pick. Best available odds of 2.3 on AZ imply a win probability in the low-to-mid 40s percent, while Twente at 2.88 sits closer to the mid-30s, and the draw at 4.0 rounds out a fairly tight three-way spread. That narrow gap suggests bookmakers see this as a competitive match rather than a mismatch. Away from the result market, our model flags the Under 3.0 goals line at 2.1 as its headline recommendation, alongside a separate value note on the draw, which is priced higher than its estimated fair probability suggests it should be. Bettors weighing this fixture should treat both angles as data-driven suggestions rather than predictions of a specific outcome.
Verdict: The model's featured angle, Under 3.0 goals at 2.1, reflects a moderate 45 percent confidence level but actually carries a slight negative edge, so it should be treated as a measured option rather than a strong lean. The draw's positive edge is the more statistically interesting data point here. Stake modestly and manage bankroll with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.23 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.25 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.82 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.66, with a 58% confidence rating.
AZ Alkmaar are the market favourite, priced at 2.3 for the win, which implies a win probability in the low-to-mid 40s percent. FC Twente are priced at 2.88, suggesting a lower but still meaningful chance of victory.
The best available price on the draw is 4.0. The model estimates the draw's fair probability at 26 percent, which produces a positive value edge of 5.91 percent against that price.
According to the data, the draw shows a positive edge of 5.91 percent versus market consensus, while the recommended Under 3.0 goals bet at 2.1 actually shows a slight negative edge of -5.75 percent despite 45 percent implied confidence, so neither should be viewed as a sure thing.
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Twente Enschede takes place Sun · 19:00 in the Eredivisie.
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