Austrian Bundesliga ยท Wed ยท 16:30 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Austria Wien are firm favourites at 1.77 (about 56% implied), well ahead of WSG Tirol at 4.45 (around 22%).
The draw is priced at 3.75, an implied probability near 27%, sitting between the two match-result outcomes.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.78 has an implied confidence of about 53% but a negative value edge of roughly -6%.
No value picks cleared the threshold against the market consensus, suggesting prices are broadly efficient here.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 9.29 |
| 2-1 | 9.8% | 10.19 |
| 1-0 | 9.6% | 10.45 |
| 2-0 | 8.7% | 11.45 |
| 1-2 | 6.0% | 16.56 |
| 3-1 | 6.0% | 16.78 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.82 and 1.12. These six scorelines cover 51% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท AW | X | 2 ยท WT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.77 | 3.70 | 4.45 |
| Coolbet | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.40 |
| Betsson | 1.72 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.72 | 3.60 | 4.40 |
| Codere (IT) | 1.67 | 3.65 | 4.40 |
| Suprabets | 1.67 | 3.41 | 4.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Austria Wien host WSG Tirol in the Austrian Bundesliga, and the market leaves little doubt about which side it prefers. Priced at 1.77, Austria Wien are the clear favourites, a figure that translates to an implied probability of roughly 56%. WSG Tirol are the outsiders at 4.45, or about 22% in implied terms, while the draw sits at 3.75, close to a 27% chance before the bookmaker margin is stripped out. Rather than backing the match result, our model looks to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 with an implied confidence around 53%. It is worth flagging that this pick carries a negative value edge of roughly -6%, meaning the price does not currently offer an advantage over the market. That makes this a preview to approach with measured expectations and careful stake sizing.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.78, reflecting an expectation of an open game. However, the negative -6% value edge means the price offers no market advantage, so treat this as a modest-conviction angle rather than a strong one and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 17:30 | Austria Lustenau v WSG Tirol | 2.40 | 3.62 | 2.85 |
| 29 Aug 15:00 | Grazer AK v Wolfsberger AC | 3.10 | 3.67 | 2.30 |
| 29 Aug 17:30 | LASK v Rheindorf Altach | 1.43 | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| 30 Aug 15:00 | Rapid Wien v Sturm Graz | 2.23 | 3.96 | 3.10 |
| 30 Aug 15:00 | Hartberg v Ried | 3.00 | 3.54 | 2.40 |
| 30 Aug 17:00 | RB Salzburg v Austria Wien | 1.43 | 5.20 | 7.22 |
| 1 Sept 17:30 | Wolfsberger AC v LASK | 4.25 | 3.85 | 1.80 |
| 2 Sept 18:30 | RB Salzburg v Rapid Wien | 2.07 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.78, with a 53% confidence rating.
Austria Wien are the favourites at 1.77, implying roughly a 56% chance, while WSG Tirol are the outsiders at 4.45, around 22%.
The draw is available at 3.75 with Coolbet, which corresponds to an implied probability of about 27% before margin.
No value picks cleared our threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 actually carries a negative edge of about -6%, so there is no clear pricing advantage.
Austria Wien vs WSG Tirol takes place Wed ยท 16:30 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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