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แ แแญแ โฝ Austrian Bundesliga ๐ Sun ยท 15:00
Our tip
Under 2.5 goals
Odds
2.35
โ
Official pick โ published to our graded record ยท backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue ยท 45%
AI Value edge 5.99% ยท best price at Tipico
Bet at Tipico Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Sturm Graz are narrow favourites at 2.5 (about 40% implied), just ahead of Rapid Wien at 2.65 (about 38%).
02
The small price gap of 0.15 between the two teams signals a closely matched contest in the market's eyes.
03
The draw at 3.5 implies roughly 29%, a realistic outcome given how evenly the sides are priced.
04
The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 carries a negative value edge of -5.82%, so it offers no pricing advantage despite the 53% model confidence.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 53%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.5% | 8.01 |
| 0-1 | 10.1% | 9.94 |
| 1-0 | 9.1% | 10.98 |
| 1-2 | 8.6% | 11.68 |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | 12.90 |
| 0-0 | 7.3% | 13.62 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.24 and 1.37. These six scorelines cover 55% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Additional predictions
| Market | Odds | Value edge | Confidence | AI score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (X) | 3.96 | +3.9% | 26% | 57 |
Model-scored alternatives to the main tip โ every market is ranked by value edge and win probability, not by potential payout.
Team form
RW Rapid Wien WW
16 Aug 26 vs Grazer AK 8-0
9 Aug 26 @ Ried 2-1
SG Sturm Graz DWW
22 Aug 26 vs Austria Lustenau 1-1
15 Aug 26 vs Rheindorf Altach 1-0
8 Aug 26 @ Hartberg 2-0
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท RW | X | 2 ยท SG |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.17 | 3.96 | 2.96 |
| 1xBet | 2.16 | 3.75 | 2.96 |
| Tipico | 2.10 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.23 | 3.55 | 2.95 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.23 | 3.55 | 2.95 |
| Coolbet | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz: match preview
This Austrian Bundesliga clash between Rapid Wien and Sturm Graz is a genuinely tight one according to the market. Sturm Graz are marginally the favourites at 2.5, which translates to roughly 40% implied probability, while Rapid Wien sit just behind at 2.65, or about 38%. The draw is priced at 3.5, implying near 29%. Those figures show a bookmaker who sees very little separating the two sides, with the home advantage not enough to swing the pricing decisively toward Rapid. Rather than pick a side, our model leans toward the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 with Coolbet, carrying a market-implied confidence around 53%. It is worth noting up front that this selection currently shows a negative value edge, so it is more of a model preference than a clear pricing advantage. Weigh that carefully before committing any stake.
Verdict: The model favours Over 2.5 goals at 1.78, backed by around 53% implied confidence. However, the negative value edge of -5.82% means the price offers no market advantage, making this a moderate-risk selection at best. Treat it as a lean rather than a strong call and stake responsibly.
Upcoming Austrian Bundesliga fixtures
All Austrian Bundesliga tips โ| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 17:30 | Austria Lustenau v WSG Tirol | 2.40 | 3.62 | 2.85 |
| 29 Aug 15:00 | Grazer AK v Wolfsberger AC | 3.10 | 3.67 | 2.30 |
| 29 Aug 17:30 | LASK v Rheindorf Altach | 1.43 | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| 30 Aug 15:00 | Hartberg v Ried | 3.00 | 3.54 | 2.40 |
| 30 Aug 17:00 | RB Salzburg v Austria Wien | 1.43 | 5.20 | 7.22 |
| 1 Sept 17:30 | Wolfsberger AC v LASK | 4.25 | 3.85 | 1.80 |
| 2 Sept 16:30 | Austria Wien v WSG Tirol | 1.77 | 3.75 | 4.45 |
| 2 Sept 18:30 | RB Salzburg v Rapid Wien | 2.07 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?+
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.35, with a 45% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz?+
Sturm Graz are the slight favourites at 2.5, implying about 40%, narrowly ahead of Rapid Wien at 2.65 (roughly 38%). The margin is small, indicating a closely matched fixture.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 3.5 with 1xBet, which implies a probability of around 29%. Given how evenly the two teams are priced, a stalemate is a reasonable consideration.
Is there value in betting on this match?+
Our model's recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.78 shows a negative value edge of -5.82%, and no value picks cleared our threshold. That means no clear pricing advantage was identified here.
When does the match kick off?+
Rapid Wien vs Sturm Graz takes place Sun ยท 15:00 in the Austrian Bundesliga.