Austrian Bundesliga ยท Sat ยท 15:00 โ our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 ยท how we work
Wolfsberger AC are the market favourites at 2.37, implying about a 42% chance, against Grazer AK at 3.44 (roughly 29%).
The gap between the two sides is meaningful but not huge, suggesting a competitive match rather than a clear mismatch.
The draw is priced at 3.61, around a 28% implied probability, so a stalemate is a realistic outcome the market takes seriously.
Our model rates Wolfsberger AC's fair probability at 44%, above the implied price, producing a value edge of about 3.24%.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.27 |
| 0-1 | 9.7% | 10.31 |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | 11.21 |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 12.20 |
| 2-1 | 7.5% | 13.26 |
| 0-2 | 7.2% | 13.97 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.25 and 1.48. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท GA | X | 2 ยท WA |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 3.01 | 3.67 | 2.24 |
| 1xBet | 2.98 | 3.54 | 2.23 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Tipico | 3.10 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Coolbet | 2.95 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
This Austrian Bundesliga clash sends Grazer AK against Wolfsberger AC, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Wolfsberger AC are priced at 2.37 with 1xBet, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 42%, while Grazer AK sit out at 3.44 (around 29%) with Pinnacle. The draw is quoted at 3.61, close to a 28% chance. Those numbers point to a fairly tight contest with a modest lean toward the visitors rather than a lopsided mismatch. Our model agrees with the direction of the market but sees a little extra worth in the away price: it rates Wolfsberger AC's fair probability at 44%, slightly ahead of what 2.37 implies. That gap produces a value edge of about 3.24% on Wolfsberger AC to win, which is where our recommended bet lands for this fixture.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Wolfsberger AC to win at 2.37, backed by a small value edge over the market's implied price. At roughly a 44% fair chance, this is closer to a coin toss than a strong favourite, so treat it as a moderate-risk pick and stake responsibly.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 17:30 | Austria Lustenau v WSG Tirol | 2.40 | 3.62 | 2.85 |
| 29 Aug 17:30 | LASK v Rheindorf Altach | 1.43 | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| 30 Aug 15:00 | Rapid Wien v Sturm Graz | 2.23 | 3.96 | 3.10 |
| 30 Aug 15:00 | Hartberg v Ried | 3.00 | 3.54 | 2.40 |
| 30 Aug 17:00 | RB Salzburg v Austria Wien | 1.43 | 5.20 | 7.22 |
| 1 Sept 17:30 | Wolfsberger AC v LASK | 4.25 | 3.85 | 1.80 |
| 2 Sept 16:30 | Austria Wien v WSG Tirol | 1.77 | 3.75 | 4.45 |
| 2 Sept 18:30 | RB Salzburg v Rapid Wien | 2.07 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Our tip is Under 2.75 goals at odds of 1.88, with a 51% confidence rating.
Wolfsberger AC are the favourites at 2.37, implying about a 42% chance to win. Grazer AK are the outsiders at 3.44, around 29%.
The draw is priced at 3.61 with Pinnacle, which corresponds to roughly a 28% implied probability. It is a realistic outcome given how close the two sides are rated.
Our model identifies value on Wolfsberger AC to win at 2.37, with a fair probability of 44% and an edge of about 3.24%. As with any bet, the outcome is not certain, so manage your stake carefully.
Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC takes place Sat ยท 15:00 in the Austrian Bundesliga.
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