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แ แแญแ โฝ Austrian Bundesliga ๐ Sun ยท 15:00
Our tip
Hartberg to win
Odds
3.00
โ
Official pick โ published to our graded record ยท backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue ยท 36%
AI Value edge 9.29% ยท best price at Tipico
Bet at Tipico Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Ried are the market favourites at 2.2 (about 45% implied), while Hartberg are priced at 3.3 (roughly 30%), a clear gap in the bookmakers' view.
02
The draw is quoted at 3.63 with Pinnacle, implying near 28% and making this a relatively competitive three-way market.
03
Our model recommends Hartberg to win at 3.3, citing a value edge of about 16.41% against the market price.
04
Despite the model's edge, the market-implied confidence in Hartberg is only 35%, so this remains an underdog play rather than a likely outcome.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 48%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 13.0% | 7.70 |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | 8.14 |
| 0-1 | 9.9% | 10.09 |
| 0-0 | 9.4% | 10.67 |
| 2-1 | 8.5% | 11.75 |
| 2-0 | 8.1% | 12.42 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.31 and 1.06. These six scorelines cover 61% of all outcomes โ the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
HAR Hartberg WLL
22 Aug 26 @ Rheindorf Altach 2-1
16 Aug 26 vs Austria Wien 0-2
8 Aug 26 vs Sturm Graz 0-2
RIE Ried WLL
21 Aug 26 vs Grazer AK 1-0
14 Aug 26 @ LASK 1-4
9 Aug 26 vs Rapid Wien 1-2
Form builds from completed fixtures in our dataset and fills out as the season progresses.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 ยท HAR | X | 2 ยท RIE |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.89 | 3.54 | 2.38 |
| 1xBet | 2.84 | 3.48 | 2.34 |
| Coolbet | 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Unibet (NL) | 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Tipico | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.35 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin โ the sharpest price-setters first โ not alphabetically.
Hartberg vs Ried: match preview
This Austrian Bundesliga clash sees Hartberg host Ried, and the market leans clearly toward the visitors. Ried are the favourites at 2.2 with Coolbet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 45%, while Hartberg sit as outsiders at 3.3 (Tipico), or about 30% in probability terms. The draw is priced at 3.63 with Pinnacle, implying around 28%. Those numbers underline a fixture the market considers open but tilted toward Ried. Our model, however, takes a contrarian view on the home side: it flags Hartberg to win at 3.3 as offering a value edge of about 16.41%, suggesting the price may be longer than the underlying chances warrant. That does not make Hartberg likely to win outright, but it does highlight where our figures diverge from the consensus. The rest of this preview breaks down what the prices imply before settling on a recommendation.
Verdict: The recommended bet is Hartberg to win at 3.3 (Tipico), backed by a model value edge of around 16.41%. This is an underdog selection with only about 35% implied confidence, so treat it as higher risk. The value lies in the price, not in any expectation of a comfortable home win.
Upcoming Austrian Bundesliga fixtures
All Austrian Bundesliga tips โ| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 17:30 | Austria Lustenau v WSG Tirol | 2.40 | 3.62 | 2.85 |
| 29 Aug 15:00 | Grazer AK v Wolfsberger AC | 3.10 | 3.67 | 2.30 |
| 29 Aug 17:30 | LASK v Rheindorf Altach | 1.43 | 5.00 | 7.20 |
| 30 Aug 15:00 | Rapid Wien v Sturm Graz | 2.23 | 3.96 | 3.10 |
| 30 Aug 17:00 | RB Salzburg v Austria Wien | 1.43 | 5.20 | 7.22 |
| 1 Sept 17:30 | Wolfsberger AC v LASK | 4.25 | 3.85 | 1.80 |
| 2 Sept 16:30 | Austria Wien v WSG Tirol | 1.77 | 3.75 | 4.45 |
| 2 Sept 18:30 | RB Salzburg v Rapid Wien | 2.07 | 3.75 | 3.40 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Hartberg vs Ried?+
Our tip is Hartberg to win at odds of 3.00, with a 36% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite for Hartberg vs Ried?+
Ried are the favourites, priced at 2.2 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 45% chance. Hartberg are the outsiders at 3.3.
What is the draw priced at?+
The draw is available at 3.63 with Pinnacle, implying around a 28% probability.
Is there any betting value in this match?+
Our model flags Hartberg to win at 3.3 as the value pick, with an estimated edge of about 16.41%. Note this is still an underdog bet with roughly 35% implied confidence, so manage your stake accordingly.
When does the match kick off?+
Hartberg vs Ried takes place Sun ยท 15:00 in the Austrian Bundesliga.