Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Augsburg are priced at 1.96, the shortest odds on the board, implying a win probability close to 51 percent.
Union Berlin's 3.8 price implies only around 26 percent, a significant gap versus the home side.
The draw at 4.16 implies roughly 24 percent, making it a live but secondary outcome in the market's view.
The model's recommended Augsburg bet carries a value edge of 7.99 percent against its 55 percent implied confidence, the standout figure in this data set.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.7% | 10.27 |
| 1-1 | 8.9% | 11.29 |
| 2-0 | 8.3% | 12.05 |
| 1-0 | 7.5% | 13.25 |
| 3-1 | 7.1% | 14.03 |
| 3-0 | 6.1% | 16.45 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.20 and 1.17. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Augsburg's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AUG | X | 2 · UB |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.96 | 4.16 | 3.77 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.91 | 4.05 | 3.68 |
| Tipico | 1.85 | 4.00 | 3.80 |
| Pinnacle | 1.85 | 3.95 | 3.84 |
| Nordic Bet | 1.88 | 3.85 | 3.75 |
| Betsson | 1.88 | 3.85 | 3.70 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Augsburg host Union Berlin in a Bundesliga meeting where the odds board leaves little doubt about market sentiment. Best prices have Augsburg as clear favourites at 1.96 with 1xBet, which implies a win probability of roughly 51 percent before accounting for bookmaker margin. Union Berlin, by contrast, drift out to 3.8 with 888sport, pointing to a much slimmer implied chance of around 26 percent. The draw sits at 4.16 with 1xBet, translating to about 24 percent, which keeps the stalemate outcome firmly in play despite the home side's favoured status. Our model leans into this pricing structure, recommending Augsburg to win at 1.96, citing a market-implied confidence of 55 percent and a calculated value edge of nearly 8 percent. That gap between model confidence and bookmaker price is the core rationale for the selection, though no outcome in football carries certainty and bankroll discipline remains sensible regardless of perceived edge.
Verdict: Augsburg at 1.96 is the data-backed pick, supported by a near-8 percent value edge and 55 percent model confidence that exceeds the market's implied probability. It is a moderate-risk single, not a certainty, with the draw and an Union Berlin upset both still realistically priced into the market.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 3.0 goals at odds of 1.88, with a 51% confidence rating.
Augsburg are the clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.96 compared to 3.8 for Union Berlin, implying roughly a 51 percent chance of an Augsburg win versus about 26 percent for the visitors.
The best available draw price is 4.16 with 1xBet, which implies an approximate 24 percent probability for the match ending level.
According to the model, yes, Augsburg at 1.96 shows a 7.99 percent value edge with 55 percent implied confidence, making it the recommended bet, though it still carries the inherent risk of any single-match wager.
Augsburg vs Union Berlin takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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