Premier League · Sat · 11:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Manchester City's 1.82 price implies roughly 55 percent win probability, making them clear favourites over Aston Villa at 4.45 (about 22 percent).
The draw at 4.16 carries an implied probability near 24 percent, and our model's fair probability of 26 percent gives it a positive edge of around 6.86 percent versus the market price.
Over 2.5 goals is priced at 1.64, translating to roughly 61 percent implied confidence, though the calculated edge is slightly negative at -1.6 percent, meaning the price is marginally tighter than fair value.
Odds across all three match-result outcomes sum to just over 100 percent, indicating a fairly standard bookmaker margin with no extreme mispricing evident.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.7% | 9.39 |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | 10.24 |
| 0-1 | 9.2% | 10.92 |
| 0-2 | 8.4% | 11.92 |
| 2-1 | 6.2% | 16.13 |
| 1-3 | 6.0% | 16.75 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.16 and 1.83. These six scorelines cover 50% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Aston Villa's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · AV | X | 2 · MC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.08 | 4.37 | 1.70 |
| Betfair | 4.90 | 4.40 | 1.65 |
| Unibet (SE) | 4.90 | 4.30 | 1.66 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 4.90 | 4.30 | 1.66 |
| Unibet (NL) | 4.90 | 4.30 | 1.66 |
| Marathon Bet | 4.95 | 4.25 | 1.65 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Manchester City travel to Villa Park as clear favourites for this Premier League meeting with Aston Villa, with the best available price of 1.82 implying a win probability of roughly 55 percent for the visitors. Aston Villa sit at 4.45, pointing to an implied chance of around 22 percent, while the draw is priced at 4.16, implying about 24 percent. Those numbers paint City as the stronger side on paper, though a one-in-four shot for a stalemate keeps the draw relevant to anyone weighing up the full match-result market. Our recommended angle for this fixture actually sits outside the straight win markets: Over 2.5 goals at 1.64, which the market prices at close to a 61 percent chance of landing. It is not a standout value play by the numbers, but it reflects a game many expect to be open given City's pricing dominance.
Verdict: Over 2.5 goals at 1.64 is a reasonably backed market angle given its 61 percent implied probability, though the slightly negative edge means it is not an outright value bet. The draw at 4.16 shows a modest statistical edge, but Manchester City remain the clear market favourites overall.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Everton v Chelsea | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.23 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Brentford v Liverpool | 2.51 | 3.85 | 2.92 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Fulham v Hull City | 1.79 | 4.15 | 5.18 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Manchester City v Ipswich Town | 1.26 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Newcastle United v Aston Villa | 2.30 | 3.95 | 3.19 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Leeds United v Manchester United | 2.57 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Bournemouth v Sunderland | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Brighton and Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | 1.63 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Man United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.66, with a 59% confidence rating.
Manchester City are priced at 1.82, the shortest odds among the three outcomes, implying roughly a 55 percent chance of victory according to the market.
The draw is available at 4.16, which implies an approximate 24 percent probability, and our model estimates a slightly higher fair probability of 26 percent.
The data suggests a modest edge on the draw, estimated at around 6.86 percent above the market-implied probability, while the recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.64 shows a small negative edge of -1.6 percent.
Aston Villa vs Manchester City takes place Sat · 11:30 in the Premier League.
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