Premier League · Sat · 14:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Arsenal's 1.47 price implies an approximate 68 percent win probability, underlining their clear favourite status against Everton.
Everton's 7.6 price reflects a market-implied chance of around 13 percent, positioning them as outsiders in this fixture.
The draw at 4.93 carries a fair probability estimate of 24 percent against an implied price probability near 20 percent, producing a notable 18.27 percent value edge according to the model.
The recommended Over 2.5 Goals selection at 1.74 carries 57 percent model confidence but shows a slight negative value edge of -1.5 percent, suggesting the price is close to fair rather than clearly favourable.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 14.9% | 6.71 |
| 2-0 | 12.9% | 7.76 |
| 1-1 | 10.8% | 9.29 |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | 10.75 |
| 0-0 | 8.6% | 11.60 |
| 3-0 | 7.4% | 13.46 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.73 and 0.72. These six scorelines cover 64% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Arsenal's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ARS | X | 2 · EVE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.43 | 4.93 | 8.90 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.40 | 4.80 | 8.50 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.40 | 4.80 | 8.50 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.40 | 4.80 | 8.50 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.39 | 4.80 | 8.70 |
| Betsson | 1.36 | 4.86 | 8.89 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Arsenal host Everton at the Emirates in a Premier League fixture where the betting market leaves little doubt about the pecking order. Best prices put Arsenal at 1.47 to win, which implies a probability of roughly 68 percent, against Everton's 7.6 (around 13 percent) and the draw at 4.93 (close to 20 percent). Those numbers paint Arsenal as strong favourites on home soil, with Everton given only an outside chance of causing an upset. Within this pricing structure, the model's recommended angle actually sidesteps the match-result market altogether, pointing instead to Over 2.5 goals at 1.74, reflecting a view that the game could be open enough to produce goals at both ends, even with one side heavily favoured to win it.
Verdict: The data points to Arsenal as strong favourites, but the model's actual recommendation is Over 2.5 goals at 1.74, built on 57 percent confidence. With a marginally negative value edge, this is a reasonably balanced pick rather than a standout value play, and stakes should be sized with care.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 Oct 11:30 | Everton v Chelsea | 3.40 | 3.90 | 2.23 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Brentford v Liverpool | 2.51 | 3.85 | 2.92 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Fulham v Hull City | 1.79 | 4.15 | 5.18 |
| 17 Oct 14:00 | Manchester City v Ipswich Town | 1.26 | 7.80 | 14.50 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Newcastle United v Aston Villa | 2.30 | 3.95 | 3.19 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Leeds United v Manchester United | 2.57 | 3.80 | 2.88 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Bournemouth v Sunderland | 2.12 | 3.75 | 3.85 |
| 18 Oct 13:00 | Brighton and Hove Albion v Crystal Palace | 1.63 | 4.80 | 6.00 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Man City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | +11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | +5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton Hove | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | +13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | +2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds United | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich Town | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Man United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry City | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.14, with a 46% confidence rating.
Arsenal are clear favourites according to the odds, priced at 1.47, which implies roughly a 68 percent chance of victory, compared with Everton's 7.6 price and the draw at 4.93.
The best available price on the draw is 4.93. The model estimates a fair probability of 24 percent for this outcome, higher than the price's implied probability, which creates an 18.27 percent value edge.
The clearest statistical value noted is on the draw, with an 18.27 percent edge versus market pricing. The model's actual recommended bet, however, is Over 2.5 Goals at 1.74, which carries 57 percent confidence but only a slight negative edge of -1.5 percent.
Arsenal vs Everton takes place Sat · 14:00 in the Premier League.
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