Eredivisie · Sat · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Heerenveen are priced as clear favourites at 2.12, implying close to 47% win probability compared to ADO Den Haag's 31% at 3.2.
The draw at 3.96 implies roughly 25% probability, a reasonably live outcome given the gap between the two teams' prices.
Combined implied probabilities exceed 100% (around 103.7%), reflecting standard bookmaker overround rather than genuine market uncertainty.
The model's Under 3.5 goals selection at 1.66 carries a negative value edge of -4.12%, meaning the odds do not currently exceed the model's fair-value estimate despite a 58% confidence reading.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 10.3% | 9.69 |
| 1-2 | 9.4% | 10.60 |
| 0-1 | 7.7% | 12.95 |
| 0-2 | 7.1% | 14.16 |
| 2-1 | 6.9% | 14.51 |
| 2-2 | 6.3% | 15.87 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.34 and 1.83. These six scorelines cover 48% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
| Bookmaker | 1 · ADH | X | 2 · HEE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.20 | 3.96 | 2.10 |
| Nordic Bet | 3.25 | 3.85 | 2.02 |
| Betsson | 3.22 | 3.82 | 2.01 |
| Marathon Bet | 3.10 | 3.84 | 2.03 |
| 888sport | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Eredivisie action brings ADO Den Haag up against Heerenveen, with the betting market clearly leaning toward the away side. Heerenveen's best price of 2.12 translates to an implied probability of roughly 47%, making them the clear favourite over ADO Den Haag, whose 3.2 odds imply around 31% chance of victory. The draw sits at 3.96, implying roughly 25%, suggesting bookmakers see a competitive edge for Heerenveen without ruling out a stalemate. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, flagging Under 3.5 goals at 1.66 as the recommended angle, with a model-implied confidence of 58%. Notably, this pick carries a negative value edge of -4.12%, meaning the current price does not fully align with the model's own probability estimate. No standout value picks emerged elsewhere in the market consensus comparison for this fixture.
Verdict: Under 3.5 goals at 1.66 is the model's highlighted angle, backed by 58% implied confidence, but the negative value edge of -4.12% tempers enthusiasm. It is a moderate-risk selection rather than a clear market inefficiency, so bettors should size stakes with that caveat in mind.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:00 | Heerenveen v Excelsior | 1.71 | 4.50 | 5.10 |
| 17 Oct 14:30 | ADO Den Haag v PSV Eindhoven | 11.00 | 7.23 | 1.29 |
| 17 Oct 18:00 | SC Telstar v Feyenoord | 8.59 | 6.00 | 1.34 |
| 17 Oct 19:00 | Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II | 1.64 | 4.80 | 5.60 |
| 18 Oct 10:15 | FC Zwolle v Go Ahead Eagles | 3.70 | 4.20 | 2.04 |
| 18 Oct 12:30 | SC Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar | 6.75 | 5.25 | 1.48 |
| 18 Oct 14:45 | Groningen v Ajax | 4.10 | 4.40 | 1.82 |
| 18 Oct 18:00 | FC Twente Enschede v FC Utrecht | 1.32 | 6.50 | 8.80 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Go Ahead | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.66, with a 58% confidence rating.
Heerenveen are favoured by the market at 2.12, implying around 47% win probability, compared to ADO Den Haag's 31% at 3.2 odds.
The draw is available at 3.96, which implies roughly a 25% probability according to the market.
The model recommends Under 3.5 goals at 1.66 with 58% implied confidence, but this comes with a negative value edge of -4.12%, meaning the price does not currently exceed the model's fair-value assessment.
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen takes place Sat · 19:00 in the Eredivisie.
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