Bundesliga · Sat · 13:30 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Oct 13, 2026 · how we work
Köln are priced at 2.15, implying roughly 46.5% win probability, the clearest favourite tag in this match-result market.
Schalke's 3.5 price implies about 28.6%, while the draw at 3.98 implies around 25.1%, keeping the outcome far from a formality.
The recommended Under 3.0 goals bet at 1.96 carries a market-implied probability near 51%, yet the model's own confidence is slightly lower at 49%.
The value edge on the Under 3.0 selection is -4.83%, and no match-result selections cleared the site's value threshold.
| Bookmaker | 1 · 1FK | X | 2 · FS0 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.12 | 3.98 | 3.43 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.06 | 3.88 | 3.34 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 3.96 | 3.34 |
| Tipico | 1.97 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| Betsson | 2.02 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
| Nordic Bet | 2.02 | 3.70 | 3.40 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Bundesliga action brings together 1. FC Köln and FC Schalke 04, with the betting market clearly leaning toward the hosts. Köln's price of 2.15 implies a win probability of roughly 46.5%, noticeably higher than Schalke's 3.5 (about 28.6%) and the draw at 3.98 (around 25.1%). That gap suggests bookmakers see this as a moderately one-sided affair without making Köln an overwhelming favourite. Away from the match-result market, our model's attention turns to the goals market, recommending Under 3.0 goals at 1.96 on Pinnacle. This price implies a 51% chance of the match staying under three goals, though the model's own confidence sits at 49% with a value edge of -4.83%, meaning it does not see this as a clear-cut value play. No standout value picks emerged elsewhere in the match-result market for this fixture.
Verdict: The Under 3.0 goals pick at 1.96 is the only data-backed angle here, but its negative value edge and sub-50% model confidence mean it should be treated as a modest, not compelling, selection. Köln's win-market favouritism is clearer, though still leaves meaningful room for a Schalke result or draw.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 Oct 18:30 | Eintracht Frankfurt v 1. FC Köln | 2.04 | 4.30 | 3.55 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Union Berlin v Borussia Dortmund | 5.40 | 4.52 | 1.69 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Werder Bremen v SC Paderborn | 1.85 | 4.30 | 4.21 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Elversberg v Augsburg | 2.55 | 4.20 | 2.71 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | Hamburger SV v VfB Stuttgart | 4.33 | 4.40 | 1.90 |
| 17 Oct 13:30 | FC Schalke 04 v FSV Mainz 05 | 3.16 | 3.80 | 2.34 |
| 17 Oct 16:30 | Bayern Munich v RB Leipzig | 1.26 | 8.20 | 11.30 |
| 18 Oct 13:30 | Bayer Leverkusen v SC Freiburg | 1.78 | 4.42 | 4.62 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Freiburg | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +10 | 13 |
| 2 | Dortmund | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Bayern | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | +12 | 11 |
| 4 | Leverkusen | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | +6 | 10 |
| 5 | RB Leipzig | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | +10 | 9 |
| 6 | Augsburg | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | +5 | 8 |
| 7 | Bremen | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Mainz | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | +3 | 7 |
| 9 | Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 10 | 1. FC Köln | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 | Stuttgart | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 12 | HSV | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -10 | 6 |
| 13 | Schalke | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | Frankfurt | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | SC Paderborn | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Union Berlin | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -12 | 4 |
| 17 | Hoffenheim | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 3 |
| 18 | M'gladbach | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 0 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 3.0 goals at odds of 1.93, with a 50% confidence rating.
1. FC Köln are favourites at 2.15, implying a win probability of about 46.5%, compared with Schalke's 28.6% at 3.5.
The draw is available at 3.98, which implies roughly a 25.1% chance according to the market.
No match-result selection cleared the site's value threshold; the only model recommendation is Under 3.0 goals at 1.96, which actually carries a slightly negative value edge of -4.83%.
1. FC Köln vs FC Schalke 04 takes place Sat · 13:30 in the Bundesliga.
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