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አማርኛ ⚽ Brasileirão 🕒 Sun · 00:20
Our tip
Cruzeiro to win
Odds
3.04
★ Official pick — published to our graded record · backed by our goal model
ConfidenceValue · 36%
AI Value edge 10.48% · best price at Pinnacle
Bet at Pinnacle Our prediction
Key factors behind our tip
01
Cruzeiro (2.7) and Vasco da Gama (2.73) are almost level in the market, each priced at roughly a 37% chance of winning.
02
The draw at 3.4 implies about a 29% probability, reflecting an expectation of a tight, closely contested match.
03
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.14 sits near a 47% implied probability, with model confidence around 45%.
04
No selection cleared the value threshold, and the Over 2.5 pick shows a negative edge of -4.03%, so the price offers no clear overlay.
Most likely scorelines
Both teams to score: 55%| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.1% | 8.29 |
| 0-1 | 9.6% | 10.43 |
| 1-2 | 8.9% | 11.25 |
| 1-0 | 8.2% | 12.21 |
| 2-1 | 7.6% | 13.18 |
| 0-2 | 7.1% | 14.14 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.26 and 1.47. These six scorelines cover 53% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
Team form
VDG Vasco da Gama LLDDL
23 Aug 26 @ Palmeiras 1-4
16 Aug 26 vs Santos 0-3
9 Aug 26 @ Bahia 0-0
25 Jul 26 vs Mirassol 1-1
16 Jul 26 @ Vitória 0-1
CRU Cruzeiro WWWWL
22 Aug 26 vs Flamengo 2-1
16 Aug 26 @ Corinthians 2-1
9 Aug 26 vs Mirassol 3-1
31 Jul 26 @ Coritiba 1-0
26 Jul 26 vs Botafogo 0-1
Head-to-head: Vasco da Gama v Cruzeiro
Full H2H history → D 15 Mar 26
Cruzeiro 3-3 Vasco da GamaBrasileirão
W 27 Sept 25
Vasco da Gama 2-0 CruzeiroBrasileirão
L 27 Apr 25
Cruzeiro 1-0 Vasco da GamaBrasileirão
W/D/L shown from Vasco da Gama's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
Best odds across bookmakers
| Bookmaker | 1 · VDG | X | 2 · CRU |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.47 | 3.29 | 3.00 |
| Pinnacle | 2.42 | 3.27 | 3.04 |
| Coolbet | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.95 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.42 | 3.26 | 3.03 |
| GTbets | 2.51 | 3.23 | 2.84 |
| Matchbook | 2.40 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro: match preview
This Brasileirão clash between Vasco da Gama and Cruzeiro is one the market can barely separate. Cruzeiro sit as marginal favourites at 2.7, implying roughly a 37% chance, while Vasco da Gama are priced at 2.73, or about 37% as well. The draw at 3.4 translates to around 29%, so bookmakers see a genuinely open contest with little between the two sides on paper. Our model does not flag either outcome as a value pick above threshold, and instead leans towards the goals market. The recommended bet here is Over 2.5 goals at 2.14 with 1xBet, carrying a market-implied confidence of about 45%. Notably, the value edge on that selection is negative at -4.03%, meaning the price is slightly shorter than our model considers fair. That is worth keeping in mind before committing any stake to this fixture.
Verdict: The pick is Over 2.5 goals at 2.14, reflecting a moderately open match with roughly even win prices. Be aware the edge is negative at -4.03%, so this is a lean rather than a value spot. Treat it as a modest-stake play and stake responsibly.
Upcoming Brasileirão fixtures
All Brasileirão tips →| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 23:00 | Botafogo v Atletico Paranaense | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| 29 Aug 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Vitoria | 1.78 | 3.75 | 5.29 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Sao Paulo v Bragantino-SP | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense | 2.31 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Corinthians v Santos | 1.88 | 3.62 | 4.75 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Flamengo v Botafogo | 1.47 | 4.50 | 7.25 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Grêmio v Chapecoense | 1.56 | 4.25 | 6.60 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Mirassol v Palmeiras | 3.80 | 3.40 | 2.14 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
Campeonato Brasileiro Série A standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | +24 | 51 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | +24 | 45 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | +11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | +7 | 41 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +1 | 39 |
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | +6 | 37 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | +5 | 35 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 34 |
| 9 | Mineiro | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | +3 | 33 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | +2 | 32 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Vitória | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 29 |
| 13 | São Paulo | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
| 14 | Santos | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 26 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 25 |
| 16 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 24 |
| 18 | Clube do Remo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -22 | 14 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Match FAQ
What is the prediction for Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro?+
Our tip is Cruzeiro to win at odds of 3.04, with a 36% confidence rating.
Who is the favourite in Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro?+
Cruzeiro are the narrow favourites at 2.7, just ahead of Vasco da Gama at 2.73. The gap is tiny, so the market sees this as close to a coin flip.
What are the odds on the draw?+
The draw is priced at 3.4 with Coolbet, which implies roughly a 29% probability of the teams sharing the points.
Is there any betting value in this match?+
No selection cleared our value threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 2.14 actually carries a negative edge of -4.03%, so there is no clear value on offer here.
When does the match kick off?+
Vasco da Gama vs Cruzeiro takes place Sun · 00:20 in the Brasileirão.