Brasileirão · Sun · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
Flamengo are heavy favourites at 1.47, an implied probability near 68%, while Botafogo at 7.25 sit around 14%.
The draw is priced at 4.53, roughly a 22% implied chance, reflecting the market's expectation of a decisive result.
The recommended Over 2.5 goals bet at 1.76 implies about 55% confidence in three or more goals.
The value edge on the Over is -4.04%, meaning the price sits slightly below fair value with no consensus value picks above threshold.
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | 10.9% | 9.18 |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | 10.37 |
| 1-0 | 9.3% | 10.71 |
| 3-0 | 8.5% | 11.81 |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | 12.09 |
| 3-1 | 7.5% | 13.33 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 2.33 and 0.89. These six scorelines cover 54% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Flamengo's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · FLA | X | 2 · BOT |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.47 | 4.47 | 7.20 |
| Coolbet | 1.44 | 4.50 | 7.25 |
| GTbets | 1.46 | 4.43 | 6.78 |
| Marathon Bet | 1.43 | 4.35 | 7.00 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.43 | 4.35 | 7.00 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.43 | 4.35 | 7.00 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Brasileirão clash sees Flamengo host Botafogo, and the market leaves little doubt about who it favours. Flamengo are priced around 1.47 with 1xBet, which translates to an implied probability of roughly 68%, marking them as strong home favourites. Botafogo, by contrast, are out at 7.25, implying only about a 14% chance of an away win, while the draw sits at 4.53, or close to 22%. That is a wide gap between the two sides in pure pricing terms. Our model does not target the match result here; instead it looks to the goals market, recommending Over 2.5 goals at 1.76. That price carries a market-implied confidence of about 55%, though the calculated value edge is slightly negative at -4.04%, suggesting the number offers no clear pricing advantage over the market. Read on for the key factors behind these odds.
Verdict: The model leans toward Over 2.5 goals at 1.76, backing an open, goal-heavy contest rather than the lopsided result market. Be aware the value edge is negative at -4.04%, so this is a modest-confidence angle rather than a priced advantage. Stake responsibly and treat it as one view among many.
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 23:00 | Botafogo v Atletico Paranaense | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| 29 Aug 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Vitoria | 1.78 | 3.75 | 5.29 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Sao Paulo v Bragantino-SP | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| 30 Aug 00:20 | Vasco da Gama v Cruzeiro | 2.51 | 3.40 | 3.04 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense | 2.31 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Corinthians v Santos | 1.88 | 3.62 | 4.75 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Grêmio v Chapecoense | 1.56 | 4.25 | 6.60 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Mirassol v Palmeiras | 3.80 | 3.40 | 2.14 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | +24 | 51 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | +24 | 45 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | +11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | +7 | 41 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +1 | 39 |
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | +6 | 37 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | +5 | 35 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 34 |
| 9 | Mineiro | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | +3 | 33 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | +2 | 32 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Vitória | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 29 |
| 13 | São Paulo | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
| 14 | Santos | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 26 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 25 |
| 16 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 24 |
| 18 | Clube do Remo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -22 | 14 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.76, with a 55% confidence rating.
Flamengo are clear favourites at 1.47, an implied probability of about 68%. Botafogo are outsiders at 7.25, around 14%.
The draw is available at 4.53 with 1xBet, which implies roughly a 22% chance of the match ending level.
No value picks cleared our threshold. The recommended Over 2.5 goals at 1.76 actually shows a negative edge of -4.04%, so there is no clear pricing advantage.
Flamengo vs Botafogo takes place Sun · 19:00 in the Brasileirão.
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