Brasileirão · Sun · 19:00 — our model's pick, the best available price and how the market is priced.
Odds and data refreshed Aug 24, 2026 · how we work
| Score | Model chance | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1-0 | 12.4% | 8.06 |
| 1-1 | 12.4% | 8.08 |
| 2-0 | 9.2% | 10.88 |
| 2-1 | 9.2% | 10.89 |
| 0-0 | 8.4% | 11.95 |
| 0-1 | 8.4% | 11.96 |
From the same Poisson distribution behind our 1X2 and totals numbers, built on expected goals of 1.48 and 1.00. These six scorelines cover 60% of all outcomes — the rest is spread thinly across dozens of possibilities, which is why correct-score betting is a longshot even when the model is right about the shape of the game.
W/D/L shown from Corinthians's perspective. Meetings from the seasons in our results dataset.
| Bookmaker | 1 · COR | X | 2 · SAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.84 | 3.58 | 4.57 |
| Coolbet | 1.85 | 3.50 | 4.50 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.78 | 3.62 | 4.75 |
| Pinnacle | 1.78 | 3.60 | 4.72 |
| GTbets | 1.82 | 3.45 | 4.56 |
| Matchbook | 1.77 | 3.55 | 4.60 |
Prices as of our last refresh, best price per outcome highlighted. Books are ordered by margin — the sharpest price-setters first — not alphabetically.
This Brasileirão meeting between Corinthians and Santos sees the home side installed as clear favourites. Corinthians are priced at 1.85, which translates to a market-implied probability of roughly 54%, while Santos are the outsiders at 4.67, or about 21%. The draw sits at 3.5, implying around 29%. Those numbers point to a contest the market expects Corinthians to control, though the pricing leaves room for a Santos upset or a stalemate rather than a foregone conclusion. Our model, however, steers away from the match-result market and toward goals. The recommended selection is Over 2.0 goals at 1.68 with Coolbet, carrying a market-implied confidence around 52% and a value edge of 12.54%. That figure suggests the total-goals line offers better relative value than backing either team outright, making it the standout angle in this fixture for those focused on where the numbers lean.
Verdict:
| Kick-off (UTC) | Match | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 23:00 | Botafogo v Atletico Paranaense | 2.46 | 3.40 | 3.25 |
| 29 Aug 21:30 | Atletico Mineiro v Vitoria | 1.78 | 3.75 | 5.29 |
| 29 Aug 23:00 | Sao Paulo v Bragantino-SP | 2.22 | 3.40 | 3.56 |
| 30 Aug 00:20 | Vasco da Gama v Cruzeiro | 2.51 | 3.40 | 3.04 |
| 30 Aug 14:00 | Atletico Paranaense v Fluminense | 2.31 | 3.20 | 3.50 |
| 30 Aug 19:00 | Flamengo v Botafogo | 1.47 | 4.50 | 7.25 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Grêmio v Chapecoense | 1.56 | 4.25 | 6.60 |
| 30 Aug 21:30 | Mirassol v Palmeiras | 3.80 | 3.40 | 2.14 |
Best available 1X2 price per outcome across the bookmakers we track. Click a fixture for its full prediction.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | +24 | 51 |
| 2 | Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | +24 | 45 |
| 3 | Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | +11 | 41 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | +7 | 41 |
| 5 | Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +1 | 39 |
| 6 | Bahia | 24 | 9 | 10 | 5 | +6 | 37 |
| 7 | Bragantino | 23 | 10 | 5 | 8 | +5 | 35 |
| 8 | Coritiba | 24 | 9 | 7 | 8 | -1 | 34 |
| 9 | Mineiro | 23 | 9 | 6 | 8 | +3 | 33 |
| 10 | Corinthians | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | +2 | 32 |
| 11 | Botafogo | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 30 |
| 12 | Vitória | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | -12 | 29 |
| 13 | São Paulo | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 0 | 27 |
| 14 | Santos | 23 | 6 | 8 | 9 | -3 | 26 |
| 15 | Grêmio | 23 | 6 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 25 |
| 16 | Internacional | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | -4 | 25 |
| 17 | Mirassol | 23 | 6 | 6 | 11 | -10 | 24 |
| 18 | Clube do Remo | 24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -11 | 23 |
| 19 | Vasco da Gama | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | -14 | 22 |
| 20 | Chapecoense | 23 | 2 | 8 | 13 | -22 | 14 |
Standings & historical results via football-data.org, refreshed daily. Before a new season's opening round this shows the previous season's final table.
Our tip is Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.73, with a 56% confidence rating.
Corinthians vs Santos takes place Sun · 19:00 in the Brasileirão.
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